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Creighton Bluejays at Butler Bulldogs prediction, pick for NCAAM on Wednesday 3/4/26

Creighton Bluejays at Butler Bulldogs prediction, pick for NCAAM on Wednesday 3/4/26

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By: Sam Connon

The Creighton Bluejays (14-16) will visit the Butler Bulldogs (15-14) on Wednesday night, going head-to-head at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The Big East showdown will tip off at 6 p.m. ET on FS1.

The Bulldogs are 2.5-point home favorites with -148 Moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 155.5 points. Here is a preview of the conference matchup, featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Creighton at Butler Preview, Prediction

Creighton Preview

While the Bluejays lost nearly all of their premier nonconference matchups, they did get off to a 3-0 start in Big East play. That included an 89-85 home win over Butler, although they are just 5-11 since. Creighton hasn’t won consecutive games since the calendar flipped to 2026, and they are currently in the midst of a three-game losing streak. The Bluejays have lost five of their last six road games, with the one win somehow coming at No. 4 UConn on February 18.

Iowa transfer guard Josh Dix leads Creighton with 12.4 points per game while shooting 87.0% at the line. Guards Nik Graves and Austin Swartz are averaging 10.9 and 10.3 points per game, respectively, while forward Jasen Green is also averaging 10.3. Since Jackson McAndrew is out with a season-ending foot injury, Creighton has had to lean on Isaac Traudt as their stretch shooter. Traudt is shooting 38.6% from beyond the arc, just above Swartz’s 38.5% mark.

The Bluejays’ opponents are attempting the seventh-most two-pointers in the country, but the 13th-fewest free throws and 53rd-fewest threes. Creighton is giving up a top-50 three-point percentage, however, all while forcing the 27th-fewest turnovers.

The Bluejays rank No. 82 in the updated KenPom ratings, owning the No. 67 offense and No. 118 defense. As for the NET rankings, Creighton comes in at No. 87, going 2-8 against Quad 1, 2-6 against Quad 2, 5-2 against Quad 3 and 5-0 against Quad 4. Wednesday’s game at Butler constitutes a Quad 2 matchup.

Butler Preview

After skirting by Providence in double-overtime in their conference opener, the Bulldogs proceeded to lose their next five Big East contests. They rebounded with three straight wins over Seton Hall, DePaul and Marquette in January, only to string together a six-game losing streak that featured a double-overtime loss at Providence. Butler seemingly resurfaced with back-to-back wins against Georgetown and Xavier, but they just lost by nine at Villanova.

Finley Bizjack has jumped from 10.3 to 17.3 points per game this season, but his three-point percentage has fallen from 42.8% to 35.4% year-over-year alongside the boost in volume. Gonzaga transfer Michael Ajayi, meanwhile, is approaching his previous success at Pepperdine by averaging 16.0 points and 11.1 rebounds per game. Jamie Kaiser, a Maryland transfer who missed all of last season recovering from ankle surgery, is averaging 9.8 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. Forward Drayton Jones brings 0.8 blocks per game to the starting lineup, while Yohan Traore is averaging 8.2 points per game supporting off the bench.

Butler attempts the 15th-most free throws per game in the country, on top of ranking top-90 in assists and rebounds per game. It also scores the third-most points per game in the Big East.

Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Bulldogs rank No. 62 on offense, No. 127 on defense and No. 83 overall. They come in at No. 81 in the NET, going 2-7 against Quad 1, 3-6 against Quad 2, 5-1 against Quad 3 and 5-0 against Quad 4. Wednesday’s game versus Creighton constitutes a Quad 3 matchup.

Creighton at Butler Pick, Best Bet

The Bluejays are 2-8 over their last 10, only covering a +2.5-point spread four times during that stretch. And while they showed they have a high ceiling with their road win over UConn a few weeks back, that was sandwiched between an 11-point loss to Villanova and a 29-point loss to St. John’s. Their recent close losses to DePaul and Providence came at home, so hitting the road might not make things better.

As for the Bulldogs, they have covered a -2.5-point spread in every one of their 15 wins this season. And since they are 5-1 in Quad 3 opportunities, they could pick up their third win in four games Wednesday.

Look for Creighton’s four-point advantage in Omaha to flip in Butler’s favor with the head-to-head series wrapping up in Indianapolis. Bart Torvik‘s model, for instance, has the Bulldogs projected to win by 5.8 points. Both sides boast solid offenses and poor defenses, so it’s easier to lean towards the home team when that’s the case. Butler’s biggest weakness is turnover differential, but Creighton is significantly worse in that category. The Bulldogs are also superior at getting to the line, which could make all the difference in a late-season conference showdown.

Best Bet: Butler -2.5 (-108)

Creighton at Butler FAQs

What time is Creighton at Butler?
Tip-off for Creighton vs. Butler is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT on Wednesday, March 4.

What is Creighton men’s basketball’s record?
Entering Wednesday’s game at Butler, Creighton men’s basketball is 14-16 overall and 8-11 in conference.

What is Butler men’s basketball’s record?
Entering Wednesday’s game vs. Creighton, Butler men’s basketball is 15-14 overall and 6-12 in conference.

Where are the Creighton Bluejays in the Big East men’s basketball standings?
Going into its game at Butler, Creighton is in sixth place in the Big East men’s basketball standings.

Where are the Butler Bulldogs in the Big East men’s basketball standings?
Going into its game vs. Creighton, Butler is in eighth place in the Big East men’s basketball standings.

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