The final few spots in the Eastern Conference’s Play-In Tournament picture are sure to provide a fascinating run through the end of the NBA’s regular season. While the Atlanta Hawks have a four-game grasp on the 10th seed, the Milwaukee Bucks loom behind them and have just returned superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo to the lineup. Tonight’s contest between these sides could be exactly the spark the Greek Freak and his team need to begin pushing their way back into the postseason conversation.
Here’s a Hawks vs. Bucks prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s game.
Hawks vs. Bucks prediction, preview
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are the epitome of a middle-of-the-pack team, sitting 31-31 on the campaign in the conference’s 10th seed. They’ve struggled to find much momentum overall this season and scrapped to reach the .500 mark, but have finally found some footing thanks to a four-game winning streak that’s allowed them to separate from the Bucks in the standings. Jonathan Kuminga, acquired at the trade deadline, has played a key role during this brief surge and seems to be paying dividends upon finally making his debut with the team.
Atlanta’s has a neutral NETRTG of 0.0, putting the team 17th in the league while playing at the second-highest pace. The offense has been productive all season, averaging the eighth-most PPG with 117.4 and emphasizing ball movement above all else. The Hawks’ 30.4 assists are the most in the league and a 2.137 AST/TO ratio ranks second, as does their AST/FGM ratio. They’re fairly average from the field with a 47.0% FG%, but a 36.7% 3P% sits seventh-best while connecting on the ninth-most made threes per contest. In rebounding, the team sits in the middle with 43.4 boards a night. However, the defense remains a the weak point as Atlanta gives up 117.4 PPG to opponents, which leads to plenty of high-scoring contests in which the offense can’t have an off night.
Jalen Johnson remains a candidate for Most Improved Player with team-highs across the board. The forward averages 22.7 points, 10.6 rebounds and 7.9 assists and earned the first All-Star nod of his career last month. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been his primary running mate with a career-high 21.3 points, but additional reinforcements may have arrived via Kuminga — the former Warriors has posted 21.3 points and 7.7 rebounds over his three appearances thus far in only 26.7 minutes per game. Of course, CJ McCollum continues to work as a scorer with 18.6 PPG, and Onyeka Okongwu’s 16.1 points and 7.9 rebounds don’t go unnoticed at center. The Hawks notably have four other players averaging double-digit points.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have experienced a tumultuous campaign marred by injuries and trade drama surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo. They’re only 26-34, but had won five out of their last six games prior to their current three-game losing streak. The latest loss came to the Celtics, but the bright spot of that contest was that their superstar finally returned to the floor after an absence since late January.
Milwaukee sits 24th in NETRTG at -4.3 and 23rd in pace, but the team does certainly look better when Antetokounmpo plays. Overall, the Bucks average just 111.3 PPG this season, which increases slightly to 113.5 when he’s active. They shoot 47.8% overall, seventh-best, and a three-point percentage of 38.9% ranks second in the entire league. They also rack up 25.9 assists with a 1.773 AST/TO ratio that’s around league average. While the unit is 27th in rebounding with only 41.2 per game, that mark does improve with the standout big man on the floor as well. Defensively, Milwaukee gives up 115.6 PPG to opponents and is notably weak against the three-pointer with the second-most 3PM allowed per game.
Antetokounmpo’s 27.7 points and 10.1 rebounds are high marks for this roster, and he’s been quite efficient when healthy with a 63.6% FG%. The star also pitches in 5.5 assists a night, second-most on the team behind Kevin Porter Jr., who posts 7.4 assists with 17.5 points as well. However, the guard won’t play tonight due to injury. Ryan Rollins has played excellent ball with 16.8 points and 5.4 dimes, shooting 46.6% from beyond the arc in a major leap this season. Bobby Portis, Kyle Kuzma and Myles Tuener average 13.3, 12.9, and 12.5 PPG while adding rebounding in the frontcourt. Cam Thomas and A.J. Green are also playing supporting roles at guard.
Hawks vs. Bucks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Bucks as -1.5 home favorites tonight with -115 odds on the Moneyline. The Hawks are listed at -105 on the ML with the game total set at 231.5 combined points.
Honestly, I’m feeling an upset victory for the Hawks tonight. While Antetokounmpo is a problem no team has a real answer for, he played just 25 minutes in his first game back on Monday night and will likely see his minutes limited once again in similar fashion with Milwaukee looking to protect the health of its star. He’s had an injury-riddled season compared to in years past, and especially with the belief that perhaps a trade may come in the offseason, there’s incentive to make sure he’s fully recovered before giving him his usual workload. Still, he’s likely to get his numbers for the most part.
However, Atlanta has a ton of talent on the offensive side of things and has hit its stride over this winning streak, even if most of the games have come against poor rosters. The flashes Kuminga is showing are tantalizing to say the least, and even if he doesn’t keep up his own hot streak this evening, the surrounding talent can certainly carry the load against a decent-but-not-good Bucks defense. The rebounding battle should be somewhat close, but the Hawks are more disruptive in creating turnovers and can light things up from beyond the three-point line to take advantage of the soft matchup in that regard. Plus, the absence of Porter Jr. does hurt for Milwaukee as well.
This one’s a toss-up, but I’m putting my faith in the energy the Hawks have shown as of late with an outright Moneyline pick.
Top pick: ATL Hawks ML (-105)
