March has finally arrived and teams across the NCAA are winding down their regular-season schedules with the last couple of games over the coming days. With conference tournaments around the corner, it just means more at this stage of the game. On Tuesday, the No. 13 Virginia Cavaliers host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in ACC play. This could be a lopsided matchup, but is there any hope for an upset by the visitors against a ranked side?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wake Forest vs. Virginia on Tuesday, March 3.
Wake Forest vs. Virginia prediction, preview
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
At 15-14 and just 6-10 in conference play, Wake Forest has experienced a pretty rough campaign. The Demon Deacons are winless in nine games against Quad 1 opponents but a solid 5-4 against Quad 2 sides; a NETRTG of +10.61 puts them 78th in the latest edition of the KenPom rankings as well.
This team has a solid offense, putting up 79.1 PPG even if not truly elite in any area on that side of the ball. They generate 14.4 assists with a 1.326 AST/TO ratio, shooting 45.2% overall and only 34.2% from three-point range. The production is headlined by Juke Harris and his 21.4 points and 6.6 rebounds a night, with Myles Colvin second on the team in scoring with 12.2 PPG. Tre’Von Spillers pitches in 10.9 points with 5.7 rebounds while Nate Calmese averages 10.1 points with 4.8 assists. However, the Demon Deacons’ defense is poor, conceding 77.1 PPG, and the team struggles with rebounding while pulling down 32.9 a night.
Virginia Cavaliers
As for the Cavaliers, they’ve had a much better time this season. They’re No. 13 in the nation and second in the ACC at 25-4 overall and 13-3 in conference play, winning nine straight games prior to Saturday’s loss to Duke. Still, they’re 6-3 against Quad 1 teams and 7-1 against Quad 2s as well. Now, they rank 17th via KenPom with a +26.24 NETRTG.
Virginia averages 81.2 PPG with quality marks throughout and the 30th-ranked DRTG. The Cavaliers average 16.7 assists with a 1.545 AST/TO ratio, and while a 46.2 FG% isn’t stellar, they hit 35.6% of their shots from three and rank 24th in 3PM/GM. Thijs De Ridder paces the roster with 16.0 points and 6.2 rebounds, followed by Malik Thomas with 12.0 PPG. Sam Lewis and Chance Mallory average 10.5 and 10.1 PPG. This unit is also excellent on the boards with 40.9 per game, eighth-most in the nation. Virginia allows just 68.1 PPG to opponents, 32nd overall with the 16th-ranked DRTG.
Wake Forest vs. Virginia pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Virginia as a 13.5-point favorite at home with the game total set at 148.5 combined points.
It’s clear to just about anyone that the Cavaliers have a significantly better roster in most areas, if not all aspects of the game. They should dominate the glass tonight given the discrepancy in rebounding between these teams (Virginia is sixth-best in OREB% as well) and are miles better on the defensive end of things than the Demon Deacons, also ranking second in blocks per game with 6.1. Those factors alone are enough to buy in on them coming out of this contest with a commanding victory, but diving into the ATS trends gives even more reason to support Virginia covering tonight.
The Cavaliers are 8-6-1 ATS as a home favorite, a solid-enough mark. However, Wake Forest is just 2-5-1 ATS as the road team and 1-4 as an away underdog. The Demon Deacons have played some close games lately, but none have come against a squad of Virginia’s caliber. This one feels safe.
