March has finally arrived and teams across the NCAA are winding down their regular-season schedules with the last couple of games over the coming days. With conference tournaments around the corner, it just means more at this stage of the game. On Tuesday, the No. 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders try to keep their winning streak alive despite the absence of their star and push further up the Big 12 standings. The TCU Horned Frogs stand in the way as they head into Lubbock, but how much of a challenge will they pose?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for TCU vs. Texas Tech on Tuesday, March 3.
TCU vs. Texas Tech prediction, preview
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU has a shot to get to the 20-win mark at 19-10, but a 9-7 record in Big 12 play hasn’t sparked much confidence in the program’s ability to make a run in the conference tournament. A three-game winning streak does indicate that the Horned Frogs may be getting hot at the right time, but two of those came over lowly squads like Arizona State and Kansas State. They’re 4-6 against Quad 1 teams and 5-2 against Quad 2 sides though, so we have seen this group play competitive ball even in tough matchups this season.
The Horned Frogs sit 49th in the KenPom rankings with a +15.63 NETRTG and a standout defense, at least in terms of the 23rd-ranked DRTG. They allow 71.9 PPG and pull down 36.1 rebounds a night. They’re also averaging 4.7 blocks and 7.9 steals, both marks which fall 30th and 54th in the country. Offensively, TCU scores 78.3 PPG and dishes out 15.8 assists with a 1.422 AST/TO ratio. However, the group isn’t particularly efficient with a 44.7% FG% and 33.1% 3P%.
The Horned Frogs lack a true standout scorer. David Punch paces the roster with 13.9 points and 6.6 rebounds, also recording 2.0 blocks a game. Xavier Edmonds scores 12.7 points with 6.6 boards himself, while Micah Robinson and Jayden Pierre produce 10.6 and 10.0 points apiece.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
For Texas Tech, it felt like hope for a deep NCAA Tournament run was all but extinguished when star JT Toppin went down a few games ago with a season-ending injury. Instead of turtling, the Red Raiders have gone on a three-game winning streak and are 22-7 overall with a 12-4 record in conference play. They’re 7-7 against Quad 1 teams and undefeated against all others.
In the latest KenPom rankings, TTU falls 13th with a +27.59 NETRTG. The Red Raiders average 82.0 PPG and have moved up to ninth in ORTG, living and dying by the three. They shoot 47.2% from the field and 39.5% from deep, the latter of which is the nation’s sixth-best mark while making the fourth-most threes per game. Texas Tech also posts 15.9 assists with a 1.474 AST/TO ratio. The Red Raiders also still average 37.7 rebounds, the same as their number before Toppin’s injury, allowing 72.2 PPG to opponents with the 28th-best DRTG.
Christian Anderson produces 19.4 points and 7.7 assists, shooting a blazing 43.2% from deep. Donovan Atwell averages 13.1 points with a 46.2% 3P%, and LeJuan Watts has also played a key role with 12.0 points and what’s now a team-best 6.1 rebounds.
TCU vs. Texas Tech pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as a 10.5-point favorite at home with the game total set at 147.5 combined points.
Since Toppin went down for the season, the Red Raiders have produced a 100-72 win over Kansas State, an 80-68 win over Cincinnati and an impressive 82-73 victory against No. 6 Iowa State. The first two teams are essentially cannon fodder for a program like TTU’s, but the result against the Cyclones stands out as proof that this unit can still succeed even without its main star. Christian Anderson remains a capable leader and both of Atwell and Watts have stepped up since Toppin’s injury, so the Red Raiders do still have some higher-end talent to help them hang around.
Still, TCU has been keeping games close down the stretch of the season. Since the Horned Frogs’ first game of 2026 back on January 3, 13 out of their 16 games have finished with a margin of 10 points or fewer in either direction. They also played Houston and Iowa State closely, losing by nine in the first of those and winning by seven in the latter. It seems they’re bound to cover in this one at 5-3 ATS against ranked opponents as well, though it may be close.
