A crucial Mountain West showdown is on tap tonight. San Diego State (19-11, 13-5) has been the class of the MWC in recent seasons. Even during a ‘down’ year, the Aztecs have what it takes to win another conference title. Standing in their way on Tuesday is Boise State (18-11, 10-8). The Broncos, while flawed, have proven they can take down quality opponents.
Boise State enters tonight as 1.5-point favorites (-105) over San Diego State. The total is set at 144.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Tuesday’s game between the Aztecs and the Broncos.
San Diego State vs. Boise State prediction, preview
As is almost always the case, San Diego State makes its mark on defense. The school ranks 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. That includes the nation’s seventh-best block percentage (15.7%) and eighth-best non-steal turnover percentage (9.5%). With that being said, this unit might not be operating at 100%. Aztecs guards Miles Byrd and BJ Davis are both listed as questionable to play tonight. Together, the pair have combined for nearly three steals per game. That’s without mentioning their stellar contributions on offense, as well.
If both or even one of Byrd or Davis sit out, it would leave SDSU in a predicament. The only other player on this roster averaging double-digit points is leading scorer Reese Dixon-Waters (12.6 PPG). However, one strength the Aztecs do possess is their depth. Ten different players are currently putting up at least 5.0 points per game. Expect more touches for defensively-minded center Magoon Gwath in this one. The big man has accounted for 8.8 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.6 blocks this season.
San Diego State isn’t the only school dealing with injury uncertainty. Boise State forward Preston Carmichael is questionable to suit up tonight. Still, unlike their opponents, the Broncos are equipped to sustain some losses in the front court. Six different players in this rotation are listed as at least 6’7″. Unsurprisingly, that height has had a major impact on the glass. BSU owns a 54.1% total rebounding percentage, 23rd-best in college basketball. In comparison, the Aztecs sit at 129th (50.5%).
With that being said, the Broncos aren’t exactly a juggernaut. The program ranks 96th in college basketball with a 113.4 offensive rating. A team-wide 34.2% three-point percentage places them at eighth among all 12 Mountain West schools. Still, this is a fairly versatile offense. Four different Boise State players have accounted for at least 11.9 points per game. A name to watch is Drew Fielder, who currently leads the MWC with a 53.8% field goal percentage. He’s averaging 13.9 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.
San Diego State vs. Boise State pick, best bet
When these rivals last met on January 3rd, San Diego State pulled out a dramatic 110-107, three-overtime victory. For two schools that pride themselves on defense, don’t expect another shootout. On the road, it’s already a tough challenge for the Aztecs. The potential absences of Byrd and/or Davis makes it difficult to trust the visitors. Back Boise State tonight as slight favorites at home.
