March has finally arrived and teams across the NCAA are winding down their regular-season schedules with the last couple of games over the coming days. With conference tournaments around the corner, it just means more at this stage of the game. On Tuesday, the No. 11 Illinois Fighting Illini host the Oregon Ducks for a Big Ten contest. With the home team looking to prevent a streak from developing after back-to-back losses, bouncing back with a win before the final game of the regular season on Sunday feels crucial for this contender.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Oregon vs. Illinois on Tuesday, March 3.
Oregon vs. Illinois prediction, preview
Oregon Ducks
Oregon will surely want to treat this season like water off a duck’s back and let it roll off its feathers. An 11-18 overall record is far from ideal and the team has fared even worse in the Big Ten at 4-14 in conference play. The Ducks are a paltry 1-12 against Quad 1 teams and just 1-5 against Quad 2s, so they face quite the uphill battle tonight. Per the latest KenPom rankings, they’re 98th in the nation with a +7.33 NETRTG.
The offense of this unit is quite lacking, producing just 71.3 PPG and shooting only 42.8% overall and 32.6% from distance. Between those marks, their 14.2 assists a game and a 1.170 AST/TO ratio, the Ducks are just 126th in ORTG. In terms of individual production, big man Nate Bittle posts 17.0 points and 7.0 rebounds, and Jackson Shelstad averages 15.6 points with 4.9 assists. Kwame Evans Jr. scores 13.1 points with 7.4 boards, and Takai Simpkins is the final double-digit scorer with 12.5 PPG. The defense is also unimpressive, allowing 73.7 PPG though the 94th-ranked DRTG suggests slightly more success than the raw figures. Oregon also brings down 34.8 rebounds a game as a team.
Illinois Fighting Illini
At 22-7 overall and 13-5, the Fighting Illini are nationally ranked and have hopes of a deep tournament run. They’ve fared well against fellow Quad 1 teams for the most part at 8-6 and are 6-1 against Quad 2 sides with the lone loss coming by two points to Wisconsin as well, but tonight’s opponent falls into Quad 3 and won’t pose much of a challenge if all goes right. Illinois also ranks fifth per KenPom with a +33.12 NETRTG, only surpassed by Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida.
The Fighting Illini are largely excellent on both sides of the ball. They post 84.6 PPG with the best ORTG in Division I hoops, shooting 46.3% overall and 35.5% from deep. They rank 35th in total FGA/GM as well as seventh in 3PA/GM and eighth in 3PM/GM as well, utilizing the long ball at a high rate. Illinois produces 14.7 assists a game with a 1.611 AST/TO ratio that ranks 27th in the nation, and the group is great on the offensive glass with the third-best OREB% in the nation. Keaton Wagler paces the roster with 18.3 points, shooting 42.3% from three while adding 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists. Kylan Boswell and Andrej Stojakovic score 13.9 and 13.2 points apiece. David Mirkovic leads the team with 7.8 rebounds and an additional 12.7 points, and Tomislav Ivisic averages 10.6 points. Defensively, the Fighting Illini give up 69.9 PPG with the 30th-ranked DRTG, also bringing in a total of 40.8 rebounds per game, ninth-most.
Oregon vs. Illinois pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Illinois as a long 18.5-point favorite at home with the game total set at 145.5 combined points.
This spread is admittedly pretty wide, and while I’m somewhat inclined to take the Fighting Illini, I’m not sure I’m comfortable projecting a 19-point blowout. Looking back at ranked matchups for Oregon, the Ducks lost by 11 points to Auburn; nine to Gonzaga; 35 to Nebraska; 10 to Michigan; 16 to Michigan State; four to Purdue; and five to USC. With just one of those losses coming by a margin greater than 18.5 points, there’s a real chance that Oregon can keep the game within the spread and escape by covering on the road tonight.
It’s not that Illinois can’t make it happen and cover that margin. After all, this is one of the best teams in the nation for a reason and is truly elite per most metrics, but the Fighting Illini have looked just sightly vulnerable over the last couple of games and may be rattled. They’ll win, but probably not by the 19 points needed to cover.
