With fewer than five weeks left in the 2025/26 regular season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape, and it looks like there will be a race between five teams for four playoff spots in the Western Conference, with four games separating the third-seeded Houston Rockets and the seventh-seeded Phoenix Suns. Given how good both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs are, avoiding the Play-In Tournament will be paramount.
The Los Angeles Lakers currently have the upper hand in the race for the sixth seed, as they’re two games ahead of Phoenix, and if they went to secure that spot, games like tonight’s — a 10:40 p.m. ET home clash against the woeful New Orleans Pelicans — are absolute must-wins.
Both teams should be fully healthy. The Lakers have no injuries to report, while only Zion Williamson, who’s questionable with an ankle sprain, is listed for the Pelicans.
Los Angeles is an 8.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-345 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 242.5. New Orleans is +275 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s final contest and offer a prediction.
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers preview, prediction
After a miserable start to the season, the Pelicans have been much better as of late, winning four of the first five games after the All-Star break. It’s just as well that New Orleans succeeds, given that it owes its first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks. Williamson recently had a stretch in which he played 35 straight games, the longest such run of his career, which was interrupted only by his mild ankle sprain on Saturday. Plus, the team’s best player, Trey Murphy III, is back from his injury, and Dejounte Murray (15.7 points per game) has looked solid in his first three games after returning from a torn Achilles.
The Lakers, meanwhile, got back to their winning ways after back-to-back narrow losses to the Orlando Magic and the Suns, throttling the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings on successive nights. Luka Dončić has continued to be as spectacular as ever, averaging 30.0 points and 9.0 assists per game since the All-Star break, while Austin Reaves has been efficient in a smaller role. LeBron James, too, has been hitting his threes, going seven-for-10 (70%) from beyond the arc across his last two games.
Pelicans at Lakers pick, best bet
Each team having a fully healthy roster will allow James Borrego and J.J. Redick to roll out their best options, and despite both teams’ inconsistency, each coach has a few good lineup combinations at his disposal. The Pelicans’ best five-man unit among their five most common features Murphy alongside Derik Queen, Saddiq Bey, Jeremiah Fears, and Herbert Jones, but it’s been limited to just 116 minutes because Jones has played only 39 games. Los Angeles, meanwhile, should be able to roll out Dončić, James, and Reaves alongside Marcus Smart and Deandre Ayton, which has out-scored opponents by 16.1 points per 100 possessions in 88 minutes. The sample sizes are small, but the margins are fairly significant.
New Orleans actually has a fairly solid path to an upset: get to the rack. This season, the Pelicans have attempted the most field goals within five feet of the basket, a zone in which the Lakers have allowed the league’s third-highest field goal percentage this season, so as long as Williamson is healthy, he could present a major issue for Los Angeles. The issue is that New Orleans has given it all back on the other end, allowing among the most field goal attempts within five feet, and the Lakers have been the league’s best finishing team. To be fair, Los Angeles doesn’t get downhill much, but it has been slightly better since the All-Star break.
The Lakers should have somewhat of an advantage on the glass, as they rank 11th in rebounding percentage and the Pelicans 21st, though Los Angeles has been a better defensive rebounding team and New Orleans a better offensive rebounding team. Both teams should be dead-even in transition, as the more athletic but more mistake-prone Pelicans average more fast-break points than the Lakers and give away more. Los Angeles should be able to use New Orleans’ youth to its advantage: the Pelicans have been a more foul-prone team than average, and the Lakers are excellent both at drawing fouls and at not committing any.
Where Los Angeles has its biggest edge is in the shooting department. This season, the Lakers rank 17th in three-point percentage to New Orleans’ 24th, but that’s largely a result of the difficult shots they’ve taken, given that Rui Hachimura, Dončić, and Reaves all rank within the league’s top 30 in three-point percentage over expectation. Hachimura, Dončić and Reaves should all get easier shots than usual, given that the Pelicans have allowed the second-most wide-open threes per game this season. Los Angeles has allowed among the fewest, which could make life even more difficult for a New Orleans team that hasn’t relied much on distance shooting as is.
With each team capable of taking advantage of the other’s biggest weakness, this game should be a relatively high-scoring one. I expect lots of fruitful drives by the Pelicans and plenty of wide-open threes by the Lakers. 18 of Los Angeles’ 29 games at Crypto.com Arena have gone over the point total, as have three of the teams’ last five games against each other.
