This late in the NBA season, there are rarely clean injury reports. By the start of March, most teams’ goals are crystallized, with some teams tanking and others pushing for better playoff seeding.
The 10:40 p.m. ET matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and the New Orleans Pelicans is an exception. Los Angeles only has reserve center Maxi Kleber (back) on its injury report, and while the Pelicans’ one questionable player is a starter (Zion Williamson), it’s still an improvement over their status for most of the season, given that they’ve only just welcomed Dejounte Murray (Achilles) back last week.
The Lakers are 8.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-345 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 242.5. New Orleans is +275 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s clash.
Luka Dončić Race to 15 Points (-103)
Who else would get to 15 points first? After Dončić, the player with the next-shortest odds is Trey Murphy III (+517). There’s a good reason why Dončić is such an overwhelming favorite: this season, he’s averaged a league-high 11.7 points in the first quarter alone, 2.1 more than the next-best player and nearly twice as many as the top Pelican (Murphy, who averages 5.9 first-quarter points per game). In Sunday’s win over the Sacramento Kings, Dončić scored his 15th point with one minute, 32 seconds left in the second quarter; the next player to get there was Nique Clifford more than nine minutes of game time later.
Dončić should have no trouble operating against New Orleans’ extremely poor defense. This season, the Pelicans have allowed the fourth-most points per game, and though they’ve been slightly better since the All-Star break, they played mostly easy teams and just allowed 137 points to the LA Clippers on Sunday night. Dončić’s efficiency should be high against a New Orleans team that has given up easy shots; the Pelicans have allowed the second-most shot attempts in the restricted area and the second-most wide-open threes. The Slovenian has been among the league’s accurate from both zones; of the 173 players to attempt at least 100 restricted-area tries, Dončić’s 80.7% mark ranks second, and he also ranks 47th of the 209 players who have tried at least 75 uncontested triples.
Zion Williamson 21+ Points (-115)
Even though Dončić will likely be the first to 15 points, I have pretty high hopes for Williamson. The 2019 first overall pick has had the second-healthiest season of his career, as he played a stretch of 35 consecutive games before missing the most recent game with an ankle sprain. In those 35 games, he averaged 21.3 points per game, hitting the 21-point threshold 21 times. It’s possible that he could be on a slight minutes restriction if he plays, but he’s averaged just 29.5 minutes per game this season as is, so it’s not like he needs a regular superstar’s load in order to make an impact.
Los Angeles’ defense should be a great matchup for Williamson. This season, the Lakers rank just 22nd in defensive rating, and even with a fully healthy squad, it’s not like they have the personnel to be much better. Los Angeles has been particularly awful in rim protection, giving up the third-highest percentage in the restricted area this season, and that could play right into Williamson’s strengths. This season, only Giannis Antetokounmpo has attempted more layups than Williamson has.
Luke Kennard 2+ Three-Pointers Made (-102)
Kennard was the Lakers’ only acquisition at the trade deadline, as they shipped the struggling Gabe Vincent and their only tradable second-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks for Kennard’s services. He’s been solid in his first 10 games with the team, averaging 10.2 points per game and, critically, posting 61-48-91 shooting splits. For the first eight games of his Los Angeles tenure, his volume was low, as he attempted no more than four in any given game, but across the last two games, he’s a combined seven-for-12 (58.3%). As long as he maintains that volume, making two threes should be a guarantee, given that he’s canned at least 50% of his wide-open triples in four of the past five seasons.
