The NBA season rolls on tonight with a top-tier matchup between Eastern Conference contenders. The Detroit Pistons, still atop the standings, hit the road and head to Cleveland for a date with the Cavaliers. While the injury to Donovan Mitchell does put a slight damper on the action, the rest of the stars are healthy and will be out in full force for this fight between top-four teams.
Here’s a Pistons vs. Cavaliers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s game.
Pistons vs. Cavaliers prediction, preview
Detroit Pistons
With a 45-14 record, Detroit basketball is officially back. The Pistons are still first in their conference and one of just two teams to hit 45 wins on the campaign thus far, riding a three-game winning streak into this contest tonight. Some teams may shirk at a road game against another contending squad, but they’re 21-7 in away matchups as well.
Detroit’s NETRTG of +7.9 places the team third in the league, and it falls 14th in pace as well. A dominant and physical defense is the key to success, allowing the fourth-fewest PPG to opponents at 109.4 with the second-best DEFRTG. The Pistons are excellent on the glass as their 46.3 rebounds a night tie for fourth-most of any team, and they pace the NBA in both blocks and steals as well. Offensively, they score the ninth-most points with 117.3 per game and are 11th in OFFRTG, too. As for shooting percentages, a 47.9% FG% ranks sixth while a 34.3% 3P% falls 26th. While 26.7 (12th) assists and a 1.762 AST/TO ratio (20th) aren’t the most impressive marks, the Pistons largely get out in transition with the third-most fastbreak points and more points in the paint than any other team.
Cade Cunningham has a chance to win his first MVP if everything breaks right, scoring 25.5 points with 9.8 assists a game. Big man Jalen Duren took the leap to All-Star status with 18.5 points and a team-high 10.7 rebounds. Detroit has four more double-digit scorers in Tobias Harris (13.2 PPG), sharpshooter Duncan Robinson (12.1 PPG; 39.3% 3P%), Ausar Thompson (10.3 PPG; 6.0 REB) and Isaiah Stewart (10.0 PPG), the latter of whom returns from suspension tonight.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are fourth in the conference standings at 38-24, but things have largely looked much better in recent weeks after the trade for James Harden after failing to look like true contenders prior to the blockbuster. Since acquiring the former MVP, the team is a strong 7-1 over the eight games he’s played and has the firepower to weather situations like tonight’s when Donovan Mitchell misses time. The Cavs are also 20-11 at home this year and are better on their own home floor.
Cleveland is ninth in NETRTG at +4.2, but comes in at seventh with a +6.9 mark since Harden’s first game. In pace, the Cavaliers are 11th. The offense produces 119.2 PPG, third-most, and an ORTG of 119.3 sits third since the Harden trade as well. They’re shooting 47.7% overall (eighth) and 35.9% from three (15th), knocking down the eighth-most shots from beyond the arc. With 28.4 assists a game and a 1.976 AST/TO ratio, the ball movement looks good here as well. Cleveland brings in 44.5 rebounds on average, 12th overall, allowing 115.0 PPG to opponents with the 11th-ranked DEFRTG.
While leading scorer Donovan Mitchell is out tonight, Harden averages 19.3 points and 8.0 assists over his eight games with the team, shooting 50.0% from both the field and from three. Evan Mobley posts 17.6 points and 8.7 rebounds, and Jarrett Allen is on an unreal hot streak with 22.1 points and 11.1 rebounds per game since February 1. Jaylon Tyson (13.4 PPG), Sam Merrill (13.2 PPG) and Dennis Schroder (10.4 PPG, 4.7 AST) play complimentary roles in the rotation.
Pistons vs. Cavaliers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pistons as -2.5 road favorites today with -142 odds on the Moneyline. The Cavaliers are listed at +120 on the ML with the game total set at 227.5 combined points.
The absence of Donovan Mitchell is very impactful for Cleveland, but it doesn’t mean the team is doomed. Last time these sides met on February 27, the Cavaliers lost by just three points in a 122-119 finish despite both of Mitchell and Harden missing the contest. They dropped a matchup to the Pistons on January 4 114-110, but beat them 116-95 early in the campaign back in October.
Given the fact that Cleveland was competitive last time out in the absence of its two star guards, I do believe that Harden’s presence will be enough to help his team pull off an upset victory tonight. The Cavs have the frontcourt talent in Mobley and a resurgent Allen to compete against the physicality of Duren and Stewart on the inside, and depth players like Tyson have proven capable of stepping up when given the chance. Assuming that the Cavaliers don’t get sloppy with turnovers and are able to hang around on the boards, they should limit the interior scoring of their opponent and keep this game very close. Personally, I’m in on a straight victory for Cleveland on the Moneyline at plus odds given how competitive previous matchups against Detroit have been. It’s simply tough to beat the same team multiple times when both of the rosters are this good.
Top pick: CLE Cavaliers ML (+120)
