10 games remain for most teams in the Premier League season, and a fight for Europe is in the cards for most. Just eight points separate seventh-place Brentford from 14th-place Crystal Palace in what could be England’s final European spot, depending on the results of the FA Cup, Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League.
With 45 points — two more than the Bees — Chelsea is in a comfortable position to compete in Europe once again, but the Blues have a more difficult task on their hands if they went to qualify for the Champions League for the second straight season. They’ll next face top-five rivals Aston Villa, who currently sit two places and six points ahead of them entering their match on Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. local). The game will take place at Villa Park in Birmingham.
The game is projected to be relatively even, with Chelsea a +150 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook and the Villans +170. There are +260 odds that the teams will draw.
Aston Villa vs. Chelsea prediction, pick
Both teams’ seasons have been roller coasters. Villa was goalless in its first four games before going on an incredible mid-season run, winning 17 of 19 matches across all competitions between September 25 and December 27. Despite slowing down since, it has maintained its place near the top of the Premier League table and qualified directly for the Europa League Round of 16, where it will play Ligue 1 opposition Lille. The Blues, meanwhile, came out of the gates hot, won just twice in all competitions between November 30 and January 7, and have had mostly solid results since, though they lost a heart-breaker in the North London Derby against Arsenal. Like the Villans, Chelsea bypassed its European Knockout Playoff phase and will face a French team in the Round of 16, but defending title-holders Paris Saint-Germain will present a challenge.
Villa has had a pretty well-rounded scoring attack this season, as both Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins have scored eight goals and Emi Buendía, Donyell Malen, Matty Cash, John McGinn, and Amadou Onana have each chipped in with at least three apiece. This egalitarian attack hasn’t been particularly prolific, though, as the Villans rank just 13th in expected goals (though fifth in goals minus expected goals). Instead, they have mostly won through defense, allowing the third-fewest goals and the seventh-lowest shot-in-box percentage. Villa still hasn’t been perfect defensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in tackles, interceptions, clearances, and ground-duel win percentage, but having Emiliano Martínez, who leads England’s top flight in save percentage and expected goal differential, means its floor is always high. Plus, the Villans have been the league’s best at playing the offsides trap.
The Blues have been much more dangerous up front. They have a brilliant South American attacking duo in Brazilian striker João Pedro and Argentine midfielder Enzo Fernández, who have combined for 19 goals this season, and Cole Palmer has added eight of his own despite being limited to just 15 starts due to injury. In fact, by expected goals, Chelsea has had the best attack in the Premier League, but mediocre finishing means the Blues rank just fourth in actual goals. They’re slightly weaker on the other side of the ball, but the chances that they’ve conceded have been lower-quality than the chances Villa has, and they rank ahead of the Villans in tackles, interceptions, and clearances despite controlling more of the possession. In between the sticks, Robert Sánchez isn’t quite Martínez, but the Spaniard ranks a solid ninth in save percentage.
Both of these teams are strong in possession, ranking second and fourth in pass completion percentage, but because Chelsea has pressed more frequently than Villa has and been less mistake-prone, it should have the slightest of advantages in the end. Martínez should be able to keep the Blues out of the net for most of the match, but even a two-time Yashin Trophy winner is prone to the occasional slip-up, as he did twice against bottom-feeders Wolves in his last match. Chelsea has the Premier League’s second-best goal difference in away fixtures, and I’ll back the Blues to take at least a point in a low-scoring affair.
