The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (26–4) will visit the Incarnate Word Cardinals (12–18) Monday night, going head-to-head in San Antonio. The Southland showdown will tip off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
The Lumberjacks are 7.5-point road favorites with -355 moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 143.5 points. Here is a preview of the regular season finale, featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word Preview, Prediction
Stephen F. Austin Preview
Following some early-season upsets over Arkansas State and Rice, the Lumberjacks suffered some tight losses against Fresno State and UT Arlington. They got back on track at the start of conference play, though, opening their Southland slate with five consecutive wins. After falling to McNeese by two points, Stephen F. Austin rattled off 13 straight victories before losing to New Orleans on Feb. 23. They bounced back with a 22-point road win over Houston Christian on Saturday.
The Lumberjacks have had the same starting lineup in all 30 of their games so far this season. Senior guard Keon Thompson leads the team with 18.3 points and 4.4 assists per game. Lateef Patrick Jr. has also poured it in with 15.1 points per game, albeit at a less efficient rate than Thompson. Chrishawn Christmas averages 6.5 points and 6.9 rebounds per game, while Jerald Colonel is putting up five points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game. Kam Burton rounds out the starting lineup with 7.9 points per game on 43.7% shooting from deep. Narit Chotikavanic averages 9.5 points per game on 39.6% shooting from beyond the arc off the bench.
Despite not boasting a single rotation player over 6-foot-9, Stephen F. Austin leads the Southland in offensive and total rebounds per game. They also rank second in scoring and allow the fewest opponent points per game.
The Lumberjacks rank No. 88 in the updated KenPom ratings, owning the No. 105 offense and No. 74 defense. As for the NET rankings, SF Austin comes in at No. 85, going 0-1 against Quad 1, 1-0 against Quad 2, 6-2 against Quad 3 and 17-1 against Quad 4. Monday’s game at Incarnate Word constitutes a Quad 4 matchup.
Incarnate Word Preview
The Cardinals hovered around .500 for the first two months of the season. They lost to Colorado State, Indiana, High Point, and TCU, but beat non-Division I opponents like Jarvis Christian, Southwestern Christian, and Texas Lutheran. Between January 5 and February 16, however, Incarnate Word went 2-11 in conference action. The Cardinals have since won two of their last three, including a 12-point home win over Lamar on Saturday.
Super senior Davion Bailey leads the program with 18.5 points per game, followed closely by fellow veteran guard Tahj Staveskie and his 17.4 points per contest. The duo combines to jack up 14.9 three-pointers per game, hitting 37% of them. Staveskie is the only Cardinal averaging more than two assists per game with 4.1 dimes a night. Jordan Pyke and Harold Woods average 12.6 and 8.7 points per game, respectively. Love Bettis is only averaging 4.1 points per game despite playing 40 minutes in three straight games.
Incarnate Word leads the Southland in three-point percentage, ranking 20th nationally in the category. Still, they average the fewest blocks and second-fewest steals per game in the conference.
Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Cardinals rank No. 185 on offense, No. 318 on defense and No. 266 overall. They come in at No. 280 in the NET, going 0-3 against Quad 1, 1-3 against Quad 2, 1-4 against Quad 3, and 7-8 against Quad 4. Monday’s game versus Stephen F. Austin constitutes a Quad 3 matchup.
Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word Pick, Best Bet
The Lumberjacks and Cardinals have already come face-to-face this season, with the former winning 56-46 at home on Jan. 12. Now, the series has swapped locales, but that hasn’t helped Incarnate Word too often this season. Before its latest win, the program lost its last five home games by an average of 13 points — all against teams with worse resumes than Stephen F. Austin’s. The last time the Cardinals faced a top-100 KenPom team, they lost by 17 points to McNeese.
SF Austin is 9-1 on the road against Southland opponents this year, covering a 7.5-point spread in seven contests during that span, including each of its three road contests. Bart Torvik’s model has the Lumberjacks favored by 9.5 points, so there is still plenty of value in that side of the spread.
When it comes to the point total, the last matchup between these two teams finished at a mere 102 points. That alone should be enough motivation to take the under on 143.5 — but there is also the fact that 14 of Stephen F. Austin’s 21 conference games have come in under that line. Five of Incarnate Word’s last eight games would have hit the under, as well.
Best Bet: Stephen F. Austin -7.5 (-105)
Strong Lean: Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word u 143.5 (-112)
Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word FAQs
What time is Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word?
Tip-off for Stephen F. Austin vs. Incarnate Word is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT on Monday, March 2.
What is Stephen F. Austin men’s basketball’s record?
Entering Wednesday’s game at Incarnate Word, Stephen F. Austin men’s basketball is 26-4 overall and 19-2 in conference.
What is Incarnate Word men’s basketball’s record?
Entering Wednesday’s game vs. Stephen F. Austin, Incarnate Word men’s basketball is 12-18 overall and 7-14 in conference.
Where are the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks in the Southland men’s basketball standings?
Going into its game at Incarnate Word, Stephen F. Austin is in first place in the Southland men’s basketball standings.
Where are the Incarnate Word Cardinals in the Southland men’s basketball standings?
Going into its game vs. Stephen F. Austin, Incarnate Word is in eighth place in the Southland men’s basketball standings.
