It is a quiet four-game NBA slate across tonight’s schedule as the home stretch of the season begins to hit its stride. Tipping off at 7:00 p.m. EST, the Washington Wizards will face off with the Houston Rockets in a cross-conference battle.
This is the second and final matchup between these two teams this season. They first faced off on November 12, which resulted in a 135-112 win by the Rockets.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s game, the Rockets are 15.5-point favorites and hold -1100 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Wizards are +700 underdogs with the game total set at 224.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Monday night matchup.
Rockets vs. Wizards Preview
The Houston Rockets enter with a 37-22 record on the season and sit in third place in the Western Conference. They are looking to bounce back from a 115-105 loss to the Miami Heat in their previous game, but are 4-2 since returning from the All-Star break. On the season, the Rockets are 27-32 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 34 of their 59 games played.
Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams remain sidelined with their long-term injuries. Jae’Sean Tate is recovering from an MCL sprain in his right knee, while Jabari Smith Jr. will remain out with an ankle injury. Of the available bodies, Kevin Durant continues to headline the scoring for Houston, posting averages of 26.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. Alperen Sengun has further progressed in his development this season, adding 20.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 6.3 assists. Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, and Tari Eason each also continue on their proper developmental path, while Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela also play key roles in the rotation.
As a team, the Rockets are averaging 114.5 points per game, which ranks 21st in the NBA. They rank seventh in offensive rating, 10th in field-goal percentage, sixth in three-point percentage and 29th in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring the third-fewest points per game against Houston at 109.2 per contest. The Rockets also rank fifth in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field-goal percentage, third in opponent three-point percentage, and they block shots at the third-best rate in the league.
The Washington Wizards sit in 13th place in the Eastern Conference with a 16-43 record on the season. Washington enters this matchup on a four-game losing streak and has gone 2-4 since the All-Star break. On the season, Washington has gone 25-34 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 31 of the 59 games played.
The Wizards took a big swing to bring in both Anthony Davis and Trae Young ahead of the deadline, but both players continue to be sidelined due to injury. Cam Whitmore suffered a season-ending injury, and D’Angelo Russell has not reported to Washington since coming over in a trade. In addition, Alex Sarr will remain out and is considered week-to-week, while Leaky Black, Kyshawn George, Anthony Gill, and Tristan Vukcevic are each questionable. Sarr and George have each shown some impressive growth this season. Rookie Tre Johnson has also had some nice flashes with overall averages of 12.6 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. Jaden Hardy has made a strong impact in his first five games with the franchise, while Bilal Coulibaly, Bub Carrington, and Kadary Richmond have each shown some signs of promise.
Washington is averaging 112.2 points per game, which ranks 24th in the NBA. The Wizards also rank 27th in offensive rating, 26th in field goal percentage, and 19th in three-point percentage. Defensively, teams are scoring the second-most points in the NBA against the Wizards, at an average of 123.0 per contest. Washington also ranks 29th in defensive rating, 25th in opponent field goal percentage, and 23rd in opponent three-point percentage.
Rockets vs. Wizards Prediction, Best Bet
There is a significant gap in talent between these two teams, with each having very different goals for the remainder of the season. The Rockets have hit some bumps in the road, but remain in the contending conversation in a competitive Western Conference. In contrast, the Wizards are content to remain near the bottom of the standings and maximize their lottery chances for the NBA Draft before catapulting into contention next year. This Wizards roster looks drastically different than it did at the start of the season, but it will not be until next year in which the team attempts to fully reap the benefits.
My lean is toward the Rockets completely handling business and covering the 15.5-point spread in this matchup. They produced a 135-112 victory in the first matchup between these two teams and covered the 16.5-point spread in this game. However, my best bet for this matchup is for the Washington Wizards’ team total to remain under the 104.5 points line.
This is a low number by today’s NBA standards, but rightfully so based on this matchup. Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and will be facing a Wizards team with plenty of offensive holes. The Rockets are limiting teams to 109.2 points per game on average, and have held to 104 points or fewer in 20 games this year. Looking at the Wizards’ outlook, they are averaging 112.2 points per game and have been held to below 104.5 points in 13 games this season. This includes failing to crack 100 points in two of their last three games.
Washington was able to score 112 points in the first matchup between these two teams. But that was with Alex Sarr leading the way with 25 points, Cam Whitmore scoring 11, and both CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton making a positive impact. None of these players will be available for the matchup tonight, and the Rockets have fully settled in defensively since this point. Washington also shot 39% on three-point attempts in this matchup, well above a 35.3% season average.
Expect every offensive possession to be a bit of a struggle for the Wizards, with their lack of playmakers set to be put on display. Count on the Rockets’ length and athleticism shining against this youthful Wizards’ roster and for there to be very few clean looks throughout. The gap in talent between these two teams and Washington’s lack of reliable offensive creators should prevent the Wizards from putting up points at the rate needed to hang around. The 104.5 scoring output is too lofty based on the context of this matchup, so count on the Wizards being held below this tonight.
