The NHL returned from the Olympic break last week and is back in full swing ahead of Friday’s trade deadline. Tonight’s slate is a small one, but is headlined by a Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings contest at 10:30 p.m. out on the West Coast. With one side a surefire contender and the other reeling after firing its head coach, this should be an interesting one. Grab a coffee and settle in, it may be a late night!
Read on for an Avalanche vs. Kings prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s game.
Avalanche vs. Kings prediction, preview
Through the early months of the season, Colorado looked plain-and-simple unstoppable. However, the Avalanche showed some gaps in their armor heading into the Olympic break and are 2-1 since the campaign resumed, so they’re certainly not as immortal as we may have assumed. Of course, they are still in the lead for the Presidents’ Trophy with 87 points, a five-point lead over the next-closest franchise — they are deserved favorites in most matchups.
After all, how could the Avs not be considered a frontrunner for the Stanley Cup? They lead the NHL in both goals for (3.79) and against (2.43) per game and are the only team in the league with a points percentage of .700 or better… which sits at an incredible .750. Colorado’s high-octane offense puts a league-high 34.2 shots on the net per game, and the blue line falls seventh with 26.7 shots against as well. This is a dominant team in all regards except for on the power play, which ranks dead last at just 14.8%. In terms of individual contributions, Nathan MacKinnon’s 97 points are the second-most of any NHL skater, while Martin Necas has 68 and Cale Makar has 60. Brock Nelson has recorded 50 points as well, with Artturi Lehkonen the sixth skater over 40 points with 42 on the campaign.
But it’s not the Avalanche in the headlines right now. Instead, the Kings are garnering most of the attention from pundits after finally moving on from head coach Jim Hiller yesterday and promoting D.J. Smith into the interim role. Hiller amassed a 93-58-24 record with a .600 points percentage over his three seasons at the helm for L.A., but a pair of first-round bounces and an unsteady drop to sixth in the Pacific Division this season ultimately did him in. At 24-21-14 with 62 points, this roster remains just eight points back of the first-place Golden Knights, but that comes more as a result of a weak division than the Kings’ own play.
So, what’s the issue with Los Angeles? The team averages the fourth-fewest goals for with just 2.53 per game — while seventh in xGoals%, the Kings are just 19th in shots per game at 27.5 and see the vast majority of their chances come from low-danger areas. This anemic offense is only hampered by a PP% of 16.3%, sixth-worst in the NHL. The front office swung a trade for Artemi Panarin weeks ago, who has 60 points on the season with three in three games for the Kings. He should provide a boost, and Adrian Kempe is second on the roster with 49 points (22G/27A). Quinton Byfield also has 33 points. However, third-leading scorer Kevin Fiala suffered a season-ending injury during Olympic play and will certainly be missed. Defensively, Los Angeles sits eighth in goals allowed with 2.86 per game and 12th in shots allowed with 27.2.
Avalanche vs. Kings pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Avalanche as -175 favorites on the Moneyline while the Kings come in at +145 odds. Betting splits show 89% of straight bets in Colorado’s favor on the road with 75% of wagers leaning over on the total of 5.5 combined goals.
Los Angeles exited the Olympic break at 1-2 thus far, allowing 14 goals to the Golden Knights and Oilers in the first two matchups before shutting out the Flames on Saturday. There’s some concern that the Kings could suffer a similar loss against a high-powered roster with Anton Forsberg in net again while Darcy Kuemper is out injured, especially given how he looked after allowing nine combined goals over the first two games back from the break prior to that shutout.
Now, I don’t necessarily think he gets totally demolished tonight as he did in those two contests, but I do anticipate at least three goals for Colorado. The Avs also start their backup Mackenzie Blackwood here, but he’s played excellently with a .916 SV% and 2.23 GAA across 25 appearances so far this season. If nothing else, I think this game goes under the total of 5.5 with room for a 4-1 Avalanche victory or something along those lines. The Kings are unstable and have been further rocked by the coaching change; no dosage of Panarin can entirely fix this struggling offense in a matchup that requires every contributor to be at their best in order to topple the NHL’s most elite two-way team.
