After their win over the Denver Nuggets on Friday night, the Oklahoma City Thunder officially became the first team in the NBA to clinch a postseason spot, as they are now 22.5 games ahead of the 11th-seeded Memphis Grizzlies with 20 games to play. Oklahoma City’s making the postseason has been a foregone conclusion since virtually the start of the season, but the fact that its participation is official signifies how near the end of the season is.
There are just five more weeks of games, beginning with tonight’s four-game slate. A trio of playoff contenders will each face lottery competition, while the 10 p.m. ET Peacock game is a possible Play-In Tournament preview between the LA Clippers and the Golden State Warriors.
Of course, four games still means hundreds of prop bets available at DraftKings Sportsbook. I’ve gone through and listed my three favorites from tonight’s small slate.
Top NBA prop bet picks
Kevin Durant 30+ Points (+255)
Durant was expected to play a slightly more complementary role within the Houston Rockets’ team structure, but given Fred VanVleet’s offseason injury and Alperen Şengün’s and Amen Thompson’s inconsistent offense as of late, he’s had nearly as heavy a creation burden as ever. While his usage rate is the lowest of his career overall, he’s posted a usage rate north of his career 30.0% average in seven of his last 10 games, scoring at least 30 points five times in that span, including four of his last six games. Jabari Smith Jr.’s injury certainly won’t decrease his usage rate.
His odds are only this long to score 30-plus points because the Rockets are expected to blow out the Washington Wizards, who have the league’s worst net rating this season and continue to be without their three best players. That’s certainly a possibility; the only two games in his last six in which he failed to hit the 30-point threshold were blowouts over the Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings, who also rank near the bottom of the league standings. In essence, then, this becomes a +255 bet on the game not being a blowout, and there would be some precedent for that: Houston has previously lost to both Utah and Sacramento, and Washington has previously beaten the league-leading Detroit Pistons.
Giannis Antetokounmpo U18.5 Points (-107)
Antetokounmpo is expected to return to the court for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, five weeks after sustaining a calf strain that he said he expected to keep him out for between four and six weeks. The news came somewhat out of the blue, as he still hadn’t been given an official timeline as of yesterday. It’s almost certain that Antetokounmpo will be on a fairly heavy minutes restriction, given the length of his layoff and the fact that the Bucks have little incentive to risk his re-injury. He scored 29 points in 24 minutes the last time he returned from a calf strain on December 27, but in that instance, he only missed three and a half weeks.
He could hardly have asked for a more difficult opponent to return against. Since January 1, the Boston Celtics have allowed 1.7 fewer points per game than any other team, and both Boston and Milwaukee play at among the league’s slowest paces, so it’s not like Antetokounmpo can rely on extra possessions to juice his stats. The Celtics have also done a great job walling off the paint, holding opponents to 2.2 fewer restricted-area tries per game than any other team. Antetokounmpo leads the league in attempts and makes at the rim.
Kawhi Leonard 40+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (+114)
After missing the LA Clippers’ loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on February 26 with ankle soreness, Leonard returned with a relatively muted performance — 23 points, three rebounds, and five assists — last night in a blowout against the New Orleans Pelicans. More encouragingly, he played a fairly normal minutes load before being pulled early as a result of the lopsided score line. Leonard is no longer leading the league in free-throw percentage like he was earlier in the season, but he’s still playing at a near-peak level, recording 40 or more P/R/A in two of his last three games.
Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors just aren’t suited to give Leonard too much trouble. Though Stephen Curry isn’t a great individual defender, the Warriors have struggled somewhat since his injury, allowing an above-average number of points, rebounds, and assists in the month of February. Leonard recorded 40 P/R/A in his most recent game against Golden State, and his primary assignment across the teams’ two matchups, Jimmy Butler III, is now out for the season with a torn ACL, probably leaving the comparatively less effective Moses Moody on him.
