I know what you’re thinking: Garion, didn’t you already write-up your favorite MLB win totals for the 2026 season?
Well, you’re not wrong. Back in late January, I published three early leans right after the good people at DraftKings Sportsbook posted this market. However, in the last six weeks, a lot of stuff has happened, and that’s obviously moved some lines. The Orioles’ win total is a game higher. The Cardinals’ win total is two games lower. As much as we love to see it, we need some new picks to reflect the new reality.
We’re less than a month away from the start of baseball’s regular season. Let’s dive in and find a few more win totals to add to our always growing MLB betting card.
Atlanta Braves
Under 88.5 Wins (-115)
It feels like we saw the worst case scenario for the Braves in 2025. They started the season without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider, Jurickson Profar was suspended 80 games for PED use, and, by the end of the summer, the entire rotation had been lost to injury. So, in a way, I understand the inclination to expect Atlanta to rebound back to its usual playoff form in 2026. Remember, this is an organization that won exactly 89 games in 2024, which was preceded by 100-win campaigns in both 2023 and 2022.
That said, it’s not like this offseason has gone all that swimmingly. The Braves’ biggest roster hole heading into the winter was at shortstop. The team signing Ha-Seong Kim was meant to fill this void, but after slipping on ice and tearing a finger tendon, the veteran is now on the IL until at least May. Then there’s the pitching staff. In February, both Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep needed arthroscopic surgery to remove bone spurs in their right elbow, and it’s currently unclear if either will be able to take the mound at any point in 2026. That shifts Bryce Elder and Grant Holmes back into crucial spots on this 26-man roster, which is not necessarily something you want if you’re a Braves’ over backer. Elder possesses the highest ERA of any starter with at least 200 innings thrown since the beginning of 2024 (5.59), while Holmes’ 11.0% walk rate in 2025 directly translated into an underwhelming 4.54 xERA over 115.0 frames.
Need more red flags? The aforementioned Strider was only averaging 93.1 mph with his fastball in his first outing of Spring Training. Chris Sale will be 37-years-old in less than a month, and he’s only exceeded the 150-inning plateau once since 2019. Ozzie Albies has posted a wRC+ above 100 just one time in the past four seasons. Michael Harris II has seen his batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA all drop in every season since his rookie campaign. Austin Riley hasn’t hit 20 home runs since 2023 and he owned a seventh percentile strikeout rate in 2025 (28.6%). The list goes on, and on, and on.
Some things will surely break right for Atlanta this coming season, yet it would be foolish to ignore the very real issues with this roster. A lot of stuff has to fall into place for a team to win 90 games, and the Braves already find themselves in a hole to begin March. The under is the play here.
Chicago White Sox
Over 66.5 Wins (-110)
After three straight 100-loss seasons, it finally feels like the White Sox are about to field a competent MLB team for the first time since an 81-81 finish in 2022. Now, to clarify, the term “competent” doesn’t mean competing for a Wild Card spot or even being all that good. It simply suggests that Chicago is no longer an embarrassment. It spent the offseason making decent under-the-radar acquisitions and using real money to bring in intriguing, high-upside pieces like Munetaka Murakami. I assume the White Sox’s front office has 2027 circled as the year that their squad is back among the contenders in the AL Central, yet that doesn’t mean the club can’t take a significant step forward in 2026. I think this could legitimately be a 70-win roster — particularly in a division with no real powerhouse franchise.
The lineup has the potential to be fun. From July 4 onwards, Chicago slashed .246/.312/.409 as a team, ranking 15th in wOBA (.314) and 15th in wRC+ (101). That, my friends, is called a league-average unit. Now, why did I select July 4 as my timestamp? I’m Canadian, so I assure you, it has nothing to do with nationalist pride. Instead, it was the MLB debut of Colson Montgomery, who then proceeded to hit 21 home runs in 284 plate appearances in his rookie campaign. Montgomery finished the season with a .290 ISO, a .501 expected slugging percentage and a 77.0 mph average bat speed that would’ve easily sat in the 90th percentile of the league, if the 24-year-old had the at-bats to qualify. Kyle Teel, Chase Meidroth and Edgar Quero all also made the majors in 2025 and showed flashes of brilliance. If each takes even a minor step forward in 2026, this offense could be dangerous.
If there is a concern for this over — even with a total so microscopic — it’s the starting rotation. Shane Smith was technically an All-Star last season, but that was more out of necessity that anything else. He’ll be the “ace” on a staff that also includes Davis Martin and Sean Burke, giving the White Sox three starters who have never thrown 150 innings in a single year at the MLB level. Erick Fedde and Anthony Kay were also brought in for some veteran presence, yet each has had more success in Asia than in North America. Still, Tanner McDougal and Noah Schultz could both be ready to debut at some point in 2026, with the latter being a top 50 prospect per MLB Pipeline. So, there’s some talent not too far away.
San Diego Padres
Over 83.5 Wins (-115)
I’ll be honest, I was a little taken aback by this total.
The Padres have won at least 90 games in back-to-back seasons, and while there’s some organizational instability after the passing of owner Peter Seidler, this remains a pretty good roster. I mean, what did San Diego really lose from last year? Dylan Cease leaves the largest void, and his stuff is unquestionable, but in 2025, the RHP was beset by bad luck, finishing the season with a 4.55 ERA. The Padres were just 17-15 in his 32 starts, and Cease wound up with 1.1 bWAR. Despite what the underlying metrics suggest about Cease’s true talent level, he didn’t really help San Diego all that much in terms of real, tangible results.
The same can be said of Luis Arraez, who may of led the league in hits (181), but did so with a .100 ISO and a .327 OBP. By wRC+, Arraez was only 4% better than a league-average hitter, and thanks to putrid defense, the 28-year-old’s 0.9 fWAR doesn’t paint all that rosier a picture. Truly, the player the Padres lost that was the most valuable in 2025 was closer Robert Suarez, but he threw only 69.2 innings, and he’ll now be replaced by Mason Miller. Having Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada as set-up men makes the subtraction of Suarez a little easier to swallow, too.
Whether you’re talking about the starting rotation or the lineup, depth is the main red flag for San Diego in 2026. The Padres could be relying a lot on someone like German Marquez or Triston McKenzie to re-establish themselves as a consistent MLB asset, while simultaneously hoping that the 2025 versions of Miguel Andujar and Ramon Laureano carry their success over to this coming campaign. Still, San Diego has some wiggle room for regression baked into this win total. They also happen to employ Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, both of whom are coming off underwhelming seasons. If those two bounce back and produce at their elite potential, it’s simply difficult to see this team flirting with .500.
