You know what today is? Check your calendars… March has arrived. That means the NCAA basketball season is rounding out the last few games before conference tournaments start up, with the Big Dance just around the corner as well. Today, an American Athletics Conference matchup pits the Tulane Green Wave against the USF Bulls in Tampa, Florida. One of these teams sits atop the conference standings, and while the other is further down, they’re looking to punch a ticket into the AAC tourney as well.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tulane vs. USF on Sunday, March 1.
Tulane vs. USF prediction, preview
Tulane Green Wave
The Green Wave are 17-11 overall and only 8-7 in AAC play this season, but they were on a four-game winning streak until their last matchup. They lost their lone contest against a Quad 1 side and are 2-4 against Quad 2 teams as well, so a matchup against another Quad 1 like USF will likely prove challenging. At 192 in the KenPom rankings with a -2.17 NETRTG, the results have been far from encouraging for Tulane.
With just a couple of games left in the season, the Green Wave are scoring just 72.1 PPG while allowing 74.2 on the other end. They shoot just 42.9% from the field and 32.3% from beyond the arc, so efficiency isn’t a strong suit. Nor is playmaking with only 12.6 assists per game and a 1.172 AST/TO ratio. Rebounding is an area of major weakness with only 30.9 per outing, too. However, they do get to the charity stripe at a high rate and rank 24th in FTM/GM, one of few bright spots for this roster.
Rowan Brumbaugh paces the team in all three major categories with 18.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest, also pitching in 1.7 steals. There are just two other double-digit scorers between Asher Woods (13.2 PPG) and Curtis Williams Jr. (12.2 PPG). Tyler Ringgold and Scotty Middleton round out the starting five.
USF Bulls
Meanwhile, the Bulls sit atop the AAC standings at 12-3 in conference play with a 20-8 overall record. They’re a strong 11-2 at home as well and are riding a six-game winning streak, too. They’re 2-2 against Quad 1 teams and 4-3 against Quad 2s. They’ve also gone a perfect 6-0 against Quad 4 sides in Tulane’s tier.
While just 54th in the KenPom rankings with a +14.54 NETRTG, USF has put forth a quality campaign. The Bulls score 87.4 PPG, the eighth-most in Division 1 hoops, dominating in several categories. Their 42.6 rebounds per game are fourth-most, and 16.6 assists with a 1.422 AST/TO ratio are both quite solid as well. While the team’s shooting percentages of a 43.6% FG% and 33.0% 3P% are uninspiring, they put up the fourth-most FGA/GM and rely on tempo and volume to win games. The 78.2 PPG allowed to opponents is a poor mark, but it’s made up for with offensive firepower.
USF is led by Izaiyah Nelson with 16.3 points and 9.9 boards a night, also averaging 3.1 combined stocks. Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion average 15.5 and 14.5 PPG, while CJ Brown and Josh Omojafo are at 11.8 and 11.5 PPG, respectively. The Bulls lean very heavily on their starting unit without another player garnering 15+ minutes a game.
Tulane vs. USF pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists USF as a 14.5-point favorite at home with the game total set at 155.5 combined points.
Last time these teams met, South Florida rolled to a 97-83 victory on the road in New Orleans. I fully expect a similar result on Sunday as USF likely goes on to cover the spread in a 15-point win at the very least.
The Bulls are a far superior team in almost every area. They’re much better on the boards and protect the ball in a way that the Green Wave doesn’t. Furthermore, they have one of the best offensive attacks in the nation that can launch a near-onslaught of shots to light up the scoring column. Tulane simply doesn’t have the talent on offense to keep up, nor does it possess enough standout defenders to hold its opponent in check. USF is very strong at home in terms of straight-up wins and has a 7-5 record when playing at its own arena. While Tulane is 6-2 straight up on the road as well as 4-1 as an away underdog, the Green Wave won’t keep up here.
