A heavyweight Western Conference matchup will be taking place between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets across today’s NBA slate. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET.
This is the fourth and final matchup between these two teams this year. Denver is 3-0 in these matchups to this point, which took place on October 27th, November 15th, and December 25th.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Nuggets enter as 2.5-point favorites and hold -155 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves hold +130 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 239.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Sunday afternoon matchup.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview
The Minnesota Timberwolves hold a 37-23 record on the season, tied with the Nuggets for the fourth seed in the Western Conference. They are coming off back-to-back victories over the Clippers and Trail Blazers, and have won five of their last six. On the season, the Timberwolves have gone 25-35 against the spread, and the game total is 30-30 to the over/under.
Anthony Edwards headlines the scoring with 29.6 points, 5.2 assists, and 3.7 rebounds per game. Julius Randle is listed as questionable for tonight with back tightness, but is posting averages of 21.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists on the season. Jaden McDaniels continues on his developmental track, adding 15.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.9 assists, while Naz Reid, Donte DeVincenzo, Rudy Gobert, Ayo Dosunmo, and Bones Hyland each play key roles.
As a team, the Timberwolves are scoring the fifth-most points per game at 119.2 on average. They also rank ninth in offensive rating, fourth in field goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 114.7 points per game against Minnesota, which ranks 13th in the league. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, 10th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 17th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Denver Nuggets enter with an identical 37-23 record on the season. They are coming off a tough overtime loss against the Thunder in the previous game, and have lost seven of their last 11. On the season, the Nuggets have gone 34-26 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 38 of their 60 games played.
Nikola Jokic headlines the production for the Nuggets. The three-time MVP is averaging 28.7 points and leading the NBA with 12.6 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game. Jamal Murray earned his first All-Star appearance this season and is posting averages of 25.3 points, 7.3 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Bruce Brown also play key roles in the rotation. Injuries have been bothersome to this Nuggets team all year. Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson remain sidelined for this matchup, while Spence Jones is questionable with a shoulder injury, and Cam Johnson is probable with an ankle issue.
Denver leads the NBA in scoring by averaging 120.5 points per game. They also lead the league in offensive rating, rank second in field goal percentage, and first in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.9 points per game against the Nuggets, which ranks 18th in the league. Denver also ranks 21st in defensive rating, 11th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and seventh in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction, Best Bet
The Denver Nuggets have had the Timberwolves’ number this season, winning all three games between these two sides to this point. Denver has won by a score of 127-114, 123-112, and 142-138 in overtime. They have covered the spread in all three games.
However, expect things to be different tonight and for the Timberwolves to produce the outright upset. Injuries have been increasingly bothersome to this Denver roster, and this is a matchup where they will feel this. Aaron Gordon has proven vital to this Nuggets team, and these are the types of matchups his skillset is required for. Gordon has played 69 minutes against Minnesota this year, and the Nuggets hold a net rating of +27.6 in these opportunities. They are posting a net rating of -8.5 in the minutes without him in against Minnesota. Peyton Watson also being sidelined only makes this a greater concern.
Minnesota deserves to be mentioned in the same tier of teams as the Nuggets and will be eager to ensure they do not get swept in the regular season. They are playing better basketball of late, winning five of their past six games. The Timberwolves also have an additional day of rest on their side as they last played on Thursday, while the Nuggets suffered the overtime loss to the Thunder a day later.
This is a true budding rivalry, and there is a strong chance these teams will meet each other in the playoffs. But this is a spot where the Timberwolves have a great chance to grab a victory, and expect them to capitalize. The Nuggets deserve credit for battling through injuries at the rate they have, but count on Gordon’s absence to play a major impact on the outlook for the game and for the Timberwolves to have more success defensively and rebounding the basketball. With better health, a rest advantage, and playing in better form of late, count on Minnesota to produce the outright win on the road against their Western Conference rivals.
