We’re closing out February with a massive college basketball slate on Saturday with some intriguing matchups across the schedule. The UNC Tar Heels sit fifth in the ACC as they continue to weather the absence of leading scorer Caleb Wilson. After a pair of wins, they now look to continue building momentum tonight against the Virginia Tech Hokies at 8:30 p.m. EST.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Virginia Tech vs. UNC on Saturday, February 28.
Virginia Tech vs. UNC prediction, preview
Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies have had a season to forget, at least in conference play. They’re just 7-8 in the ACC with only a couple of games remaining, but could still reach the 20-win mark overall at 18-10 on the campaign. Virginia Tech has gone only 2-8 against Quad 1 squads, but the program is 6-1 against Quad 2s. Ranked wins over Virginia and Clemson were the two standout victories for this unit.
The Hokies come in at 58th in the KenPom rankings with a NETRTG of +13.67. They’re top-75 in both ORTG and DRTG, posting 78.8 PPG while conceding 74.0 PPG on the other end. They average 14.4 assists with a 1.393 AST/TO ratio that falls 78th in the country, also shooting 45.3% overall and 35.6% from three. On the glass, Virginia Tech records 35.0 rebounds per game.
Amani Hansberry posts a team-high 14.7 PPG with 7.7 rebounds, but Tobi Lawal has the lead in rebounding with 8.8 per contest to go along with 11.9 points of his own. Ben Hammond produces 12.6 PPG while shooting 43.0% from deep, and Neoklis Avdalas pitches in 12.1 points with a team-best 4.9 assists. Jailen Bedford is the fifth double-digit scorer with 11.4 PPG and 5.3 rebounds.
UNC Tar Heels
The Tar Heels aren’t going to finish at the top of the conference, but they’re 10-5 in ACC play and 22-6 overall on the season. A 6-6 mark against Quad 1 teams is far from poor, and they’re undefeated against Quad 2s and below as well. Ranked wins include Kansas, Kentucky, Virginia, Duke and Louisville, bringing them to an excellent 5-1 against ranked sides in particular.
UNC sits a pleasant 28th in the KenPom rankings with a +21.34 NETRTG. The Tar Heels produce 80.6 PPG and have the 33rd-best ORTG in the country. While they don’t truly stand out in most categories, they’re very solid across the board with 16.2 assists, a 1.722 AST/TO ratio (11th in the nation(, a 47.4 %FG% and a 33.7% 3P%. That perimeter shooting is a weakness, but hasn’t held them back too much to this point. North Carolina hauls in 38.5 rebounds per game and allows 70.8 PPG to opponents, also ranking 39th in DRTG. Beyond that, UNC rarely fouls with the 13th-fewest opponent FTA per contest.
Henri Veesaar’s 16.3 points and 8.5 rebounds are both team-best marks as the center shoots 61.4% from the field and 43.1% from distance. He’s playing well and is joined by Seth Trimble, who posts 16.3 points. Luka Bogavac is the lone other scorer in double digits with 10.0 PPG.
Virginia Tech vs. UNC pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists North Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite at home with the game total set at 148.5 combined points.
While UNC has deployed a quality offense all season, things have slowed down in that department ever since leading scorer and rebounder Caleb Wilson suffered a hand fracture that has sidelined him over the last few games. The Tar Heels scored 80+ points in 15 of their first 24 contests this season. Since Wilson departed the lineup, they’ve failed to do so across four contests while recording 79, 58, 77 and 77 points across those games. Yes, that’s a rather arbitrary mark, but the offense doesn’t maintain the same upside to get into the range of mid-80s and low-90s scoring without its star.
For what it’s worth, Virginia Tech is 6-1-1 ATS when playing as an away underdog and 15-12-1 ATS overall this season. It’s not a perfect metric, but the Hokies have shown surprising fight with a pair of ranked wins and they do tend to slow the tempo as well. With UNC still weathering that key injury to its top scorer, I do believe VT can hang on this Saturday.
