March is almost here, which means its make-or-break time for several bubble squads. Few teams are in need of a win more than Santa Clara (23-7, 14-3). The Broncos have been a force in the WCC all season. However, with seven losses, every game matters going forward. That includes Saturday’s showdown with Oregon State (16-14, 9-8). Will the Beavers play spoiler tonight on the road?
Santa Clara enters this evening as 16.5-point favorites (-118) over Oregon State. The total is set at 153.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Saturday’s game between the Beavers and the Broncos.
Oregon State vs. Santa Clara prediction, preview
The Beavers, a temporary member of the West Coast Conference, aren’t exactly world-beaters. On paper, their record suggests a potentially formidable, albeit inconsistent, opponent. However, Oregon State only possesses a -1.13 net rating, 179th on KenPom. The nation’s 16th-best luck rating (+.097) has helped keep this group afloat. OSU likes turning games into a slog, operating at one of college basketball’s slowest paces on offense. If Saturday’s affair becomes a shootout, that could spell trouble.
Just two players are averaging double-digit points per game for head coach Wayne Tinkle. It starts with Josiah Lake, the team’s leading scorer with 13.3 points per game. He’s joined in the front court by 6’7″ Isaiah Sy (10.0 PPG, 4.4 REB). That’s not exactly an abundance of fire power. On the plus side, the Beavers have plenty of depth; seven different players are putting up at least 5.5 points per game. Unfortunately, Dez White (9.6 PPG) is listed as doubtful tonight due to an arm injury.
Despite its mid-major status, Santa Clara’s advanced metrics grade out favorably. They sit at 38th on KenPom with a +19.25 net rating. In addition, they have the sport’s 26th-best adjusted offensive efficiency (122.3). Christian Hammond has been a force this season, recording 16.2 points on stellar 50/40/79 shooting splits. Elsewhere, Elijah Mahi ranks second on the team with 14.1 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. The Broncos love crashing the glass, posting college basketball’s 27th-best offensive rebounding percentage (35.9%). On the flip side, Oregon State is 264th in defensive rebounding (69.9%).
It’s not as if SCU is barely eking out wins. The school’s +10.4 average margin of victory places them at 30th in the nation. In comparison, the Beavers are 229th in that category (-2.4). Transitive property isn’t everything, but it does hint at the quality of these two teams. Oregon State has lost by at least 20 points to Saint Mary’s and #9 Gonzaga. However, the Broncos have beaten the Gaels and only lost by eight vs. the Bulldogs. Santa Clara has gone 13-1 at home, its only defeat coming against the Zags.
Oregon State vs. Santa Clara pick, best bet
A fast-paced, dynamic Broncos offense has run up the score against most of its opponents this season. That doesn’t bode well for the Beavers, who seem content to run out the clock. While that strategy works against several other WCC schools, that’s a bit risky against superior competition. At home, Santa Clara should find a way to deliver a statement win.
