Closing down the five-game NBA Saturday night slate, the New Orleans Pelicans will face off with the Utah Jazz.
Both of these Western Conference teams are firmly in the race to the bottom, sitting in 13th and 14th in the conference. This is the second consecutive matchup between these two teams, with the Pelicans producing a 129-118 win on Thursday. Tonight will mark their second of three matchups on the season.
Looking at the odds, the Pelicans enter as 6.5-point favorites and hold -238 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jazz are +195 underdogs with the game total set at 245.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Saturday night matchup.
Pelicans at Jazz prediction, preview
The New Orleans Pelicans hold an 18-42 record on the season and sit in 14th place in the Western Conference. They enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak, which came against the Jazz, the Warriors and the 76ers. After getting off to a 3-22 start to the season, the Pelicans have gone 15-20 since mid-December and played more respectable basketball. On the season, New Orleans has gone 33-27 against the spread, and the game total has gone 31-29 to the over/under.
Trey Murphy III and Dejounte Murray have been ruled out for tonight’s game. One positive storyline this season has been the increased availability of Zion Williamson. Tonight will make his 35th consecutive game played, with the Duke product last missing a game on Dec. 11th. Williamson is averaging 21.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Saddiq Bey has found his NBA footing and has had a resurgent season in New Orleans, adding 17.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. First-round rookies Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears have each shown positive flashes, while Herb Jones, Jordan Poole and Yves Missi also play notable roles in the rotation.
The Pelicans are scoring 115.0 points per game, which ranks 18th in the league. They rank 23rd in offensive rating, 18th in field-goal percentage, 26th in three-point percentage and 13th in pace. Opponents are scoring 120.3 points per game against the Pelicans, which ranks 26th in the league. New Orleans also ranks 26th in defensive rating, 25th in opponent field-goal percentage and ninth in opponent three-point percentage.
The Utah Jazz sit a half-game above the Pelicans in the standings with an 18-41 record on the year. They have lost four consecutive games entering this matchup and have lost 12 of their last 15. Utah has gone 31-28 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 35 of its 59 games played.
Walker Kessler, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic and Vince Williams Jr. have each been ruled out for the season due to their respective injuries. Lauri Markkanen will be sidelined for at least two weeks due to a hip injury. Keyonte George is the lone other player on the injury report, but he has been upgraded from questionable to probable with an ankle injury.
George will headline the production of the available bodies, as he is posting averages of 23.8 points, 6.5 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game. Brice Sensabaugh adds 12.9 points and 3.0 rebounds, while Ace Bailey has found his footing a bit and pitches in 11.9 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski and Cody Williams also play notable roles in the rotation.
As a team, the Jazz are scoring 118.0 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Utah also ranks 18th in offensive rating, 16th in field-goal percentage, 22nd in three-point percentage and third in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 125.9 points per game against the Jazz, which is the worst rate in the NBA. They also rank last in defensive rating, 28th in opponent field-goal percentage and 28th in opponent three-point percentage.
Pelicans at Jazz pick, best bet
Much to the frustration of Adam Silver, the race to the bottom is nearly as competitive as the battle for the top of the standings. The Utah Jazz are firmly in this conversation, with injury report manipulation and violations of the player participation policy leading to fines from the league already. But this is a big matchup in the standings for the Jazz as they seek to maximize their lottery odds. They currently are a half-game above the Pelicans in the NBA standings, and Utah would see a 6% increase in odds of being in the top four picks and 1.5% increase in earning the number one overall pick if they are to swap spots.
In contrast, this race is not one the Pelicans are monitoring as they already traded their first-round pick during last year’s draft night to select Derik Queen. Their focus is on playing competitive basketball and laying a foundation that they can build off moving forward. Dejounte Murray made his return from his Achilles tear injury earlier this week, as evidence of this, and there have been some positive signs of life from this Pelicans team.
Expect both teams to get their wish and for this matchup to play out in favor of New Orleans. The Pelicans picked up a 129-118 victory in the previous game in which they held a lead for 86% of the matchup and extended the lead to as many as 27. Count on Zion Williamson to shine as the best player on the floor and for there to be a more complete focus by this New Orleans roster to play winning basketball.
The Pelicans have covered the spread in three straight games and five of their last seven. They are also 7-3 ATS as a favorite, 24-13 ATS in conference play and 11-6 ATS after a win. Don’t expect the Jazz to bring much resistance in this matchup and for the Pelicans to take full control. They have been playing respectable basketball of late, so count on New Orleans to take advantage of this favorable matchup as the Jazz’s top talents watch from the sidelines.
