We’re closing out February with a massive college basketball slate on Saturday with some intriguing matchups across the schedule. At 4 p.m. EST, two ranked teams go head-to-head in the desert as No. 2 Arizona hosts No. 14 Kansas. Both the Wildcats and Jayhawks are showing signs of potential postseason runs, but the more interesting narrative will be whether Darryn Peterson can handle business against one of the best teams in the nation.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Kansas vs. Arizona on Saturday, February 28.
Kansas vs. Arizona prediction, preview
Kansas Jayhawks
Star Darryn Peterson and his willingness to compete have been called into question by some pundits recently, but the Jayhawks are second in the Big 12 behind only Arizona at 11-4 in conference play and 21-7 overall. They’re 8-6 against Quad 1 sides and 6-4 against ranked opponents in particular.
Kansas ranks 15th per KenPom with a +26.82 NETRTG. The program has done well given that it’s faced the second-hardest strength of schedule, leaning largely on its defense to win games. The Jayhawks allow only 68.2 PPG to opponents and have the 10th-best NETRTG in the sport, forcing foes into the fifth-lowest eFG% of any team. They also average 38.5 rebounds, 36th in the country, with the fifth-most blocks per game at 6.0. Kansas scores 76.6 PPG on the other end, shooting 46.9% overall and 35.6% from three. As for playmaking, the Jayhawks produce just 14.6 assists per game with a 1.385 AST/TO ratio.
Peterson posts a team-best 19.5 PPG with a 40.5% mark from beyond the arc as the primary scorer. Flory Bidunga averages 14.3 points with a team-high 9.2 rebounds. Guards Tre White (14.0 PPG) and Melvin Council Jr. (13.5 points, 5.1 assists) are other notable contributors.
Arizona Wildcats
The Arizona Wildcats are a likely top seed heading into March, with a 13-2 conference record and 26-2 overall mark on the campaign. They’ve largely dominated opponents and have bounced back nicely after a couple of recent losses, winning three straight games with a standout victory over Houston. They’re 12-2 against Quad 1 opponents and 8-2 against ranked sides.
The Wildcats fall third in the KenPom rankings with a +36.33 NETRTG. They’re in the top 10 in both ORTG and DRTG with strong two-way play. The offense scores 87.2 PPG, dishing out the 20th-most assists (17.4) with the 28th-best AST/TO ratio (1.592). They shoot 50.3% from the field, 11th in the nation, also connecting on 35.7% of three-point attempts. Arizona dominates the boards with 43.2 a night, second-most in D1 basketball. The defense is also excellent, holding opponents to 68.9 PPG and the seventh-lowest eFG%.
For Arizona, Brayden Burries’ 15.5 PPG are a team-high followed by Jaden Bradley’s 13.9 and Koa Peat’s 13.8. Motiejus Krivas averages 10.6 points and a team-best 8.4 rebounds, and Ivan Kharchenkov scores 10.1 PPG as well.
Kansas vs. Arizona pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Arizona as an 8.5-point favorite at home with the game total set at 146.5 combined points.
This should be a hard-fought battle between two quality teams. The Wildcats certainly have an advantage, but the Jayhawks have enough firepower to hang in there assuming that Peterson plays up to his usual capabilities and is able to handle a typical share of minutes. The key to this matchup in particular? The rim protection of this Kansas roster. Arizona pushes the tempo and is 29th in FGA/GM, but also falls very close to last at 355th with only 16.6 3PA/GM. Since the Wildcats mainly work on the interior, the fact that the Jayhawks allow the 10th-lowest shooting percentage on two-point attempts at just 45.0% will perhaps be one of the biggest factors at play. Plus, Kansas does have the rebounding ability to compete on the glass.
All things considered, Kansas matches up well and has a shot to upset outright, but taking the program to cover makes more sense here.
