The world was a very different place the last time Tottenham Hotspur didn’t play in the top flight of English football. Spurs spent one season in the second flight in 1977/78, when James Callaghan was Prime Minister and Queen released “We are the Champions”.
Since the start of the Premier League era, relegation has never seemed so real a possibility for Tottenham as it does right now. Spurs are 16th, just four points above West Ham, but they haven’t won in the league since December 28 and still have to play Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Chelsea again. Getting at least a point on the road against 10th-place Fulham on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET (3 p.m. local) would go a long way towards survival.
The Cottagers are +105 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Tottenham is +250. There are +270 odds that the teams will draw.
Fulham vs. Tottenham prediction, pick
Despite dropping three matches in a row against Everton and both sides of Manchester, Fulham got itself back on track with a 3-1 win over Sunderland in Matchweek 27. It finds itself in an eight-team fight for the final European place, as seventh-place Brentford leads 14th-place Brighton by just six points. It isn’t all lost for Spurs; they finished fourth in the Champions League League Phase, and that elite form eventually could translate to Premier League success, but they’re running out of time to turn it around. Getting Mohammed Kudus and Dejan Kulusevski back eventually might help.
Given the talent on Tottenham’s roster, the results have been pretty confounding. Cristian Romero played a major role for World Cup-winning Argentina, Micky van de Ven and Xavi Simons are two of the Netherlands’ most prized young talents, and Mohammed Kudus is a three-time Ghana Player of the Year at just 25 years old; despite Kudus’ current injury and Romero’s current suspension, each of those players have played at least 1,400 minutes. It just hasn’t clicked: in the Premier League, only one player (Richarlison) has scored more than four goals, and Spurs as a team haven’t scored more than three in any match. They’ve finished clinically, leading the league in goals minus expected goals and ranking second in headed goals, but they’ve produced the fourth-worst chances and have managed the fewest through balls. Tottenham has also been a disaster defensively, giving up the seventh-most expected goals and winning aerial duels at the second-lowest rate. Guglielmo Vicario ranks fifth-to-last in save percentage among 22 qualified goalkeepers.
The Cottagers are of a similar quality overall. They don’t quite have the high-profile names that Spurs do, but their attacking duo has been plenty impressive, with Harry Wilson and Raúl Jiménez smashing home eight goals each and Wilson also contributing five assists. Samuel Chukwueze also has seven goal contributions despite making just six starts. Fulham hasn’t been perfect, scoring just one more goal than Tottenham and producing the seventh-fewest expected goals per shot, but it has been one of England’s most clinical passing teams and hasn’t been nearly as error-prone as Spurs. The teams have been similar defensively, as each has given up 41 goals, but the Cottagers have won both their ground and aerial duels at a slightly higher rate. They also rank a solid ninth in interceptions and have been among the best at playing the offsides trap. However, they’ve allowed the second-most expected goals per shot, and Bernd Leno ranks fourth-to-last in save percentage, so they’re definitely gettable by the right team.
Tottenham absolutely needs a point here, and even without Romero and Kudus, I think it’ll get one. Its clinical finishing makes it a nightmare for a team that has allowed high-quality chances, and Fulham very rarely presses, minimizing Spurs’ opportunities to make mistakes. Tottenham has also been one of the better road teams in the Premier League, while the Cottagers have been merely average at home. American left-back Antonee Robinson is dealing with an ankle injury, potentially robbing Fulham of one of its best passers and tacklers.
