The No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers take on the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils on Saturday in an ACC college basketball matchup. The game tips off at 12:00 p.m. ET in Durham, North Carolina.
The Blue Devils are listed as 9.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 137.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and pick for this ACC college basketball matchup.
Duke vs. Virginia prediction, preview
This is a battle between the ACC’s two best teams. However, not only is Duke the top team in the conference, but the No. 1 team in the nation. The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the AP Poll, first in the country in net rating and will be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils are led by a bona fide superstar, freshman forward Cameron Boozer. Boozer is averaging 22.7 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, ranking sixth and 11th in the nation, respectively. Boozer has led Duke in scoring in 11 of its past 12 games. He has also led the team in rebounds in 14 consecutive games. Incredibly, Boozer also leads the team in assists per game. They have a superstar on the offensive end, but this is also the best defensive team in the country. Duke leads the nation in defensive rating this season.
Virginia is the only ranked team in the ACC besides Duke. The Cavaliers lost their first ACC game of the season in triple-overtime on the road against rivals Virginia Tech. Since then, they are 13-1 in ACC play. UVA is now the No. 11 team in the nation and should be a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers rank 14th in the country in net rating, with a good balance of offensive and defensive strength. He might not be on Cameron Boozer’s level, but freshman forward Thijs De Ridder is having a great season, leading UVA in scoring and rebounding. In Ryan Odom’s first season as head coach at UVA, he has done a truly phenomenal job and could take this team on a deep tournament run.
Duke vs. Virginia pick
My best bet for this game is for Virginia to cover as 9.5-point underdogs. Duke is the better team and at home, should escape with the win. However, Virginia is one of the best teams that Duke has faced all season. Outside their two losses, against UNC and Texas Tech, they have struggled against other elite competition. Most recently, they played a five-point game against Michigan on a neutral site. They also beat other at-the-time-ranked opponents, Louisville and SMU, by single digits in ACC play. In non-conference play, the Blue Devils had a stretch of tight games where they played Florida, Arkansas, Michigan State and Texas Tech. They lost to Texas Tech, and all three wins against the other teams came by single digits.
One advantage Virginia has over Duke is its three-point shooting and its three-point defense. UVA shoots a lot of threes and makes a lot of threes. It also defends the three-point line incredibly well. This season, Virginia has a made three-point differential of +3.7 per game. While Duke’s differential is just +0.8 made threes per game. If the Cavaliers can get hot from beyond the arc, that can keep them in this game against a Duke team working hard for its buckets. UVA’s only losses in ACC play came by five points against a UNC team that also beat Duke and in triple overtime at Virginia Tech. They have shown that they can compete with anyone and should cover this number against the best team in the nation.
