The final game of Friday’s ESPN doubleheader is a big Western Conference clash between the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The matchup got even juicier with the announcement that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is ready to return for the Thunder. The two teams are top contenders in the conference, and each comes in with a slew of storylines. Let’s break down the matchup and find some Nuggets vs. Thunder player prop bets.
In the overall picture, the Thunder are 8.5-point home favorites with the total set at 233.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Thunder have been excellent at home all season and are 45-15 overall and 24-6 in Oklahoma City. The team’s lead for the top spot in the conference has shrunk to just 1.5 games over the Spurs, but getting SGA back should help the Thunder find their groove again. The Nuggets are 37-22, currently fourth in the conference, and have gone 2-2 since the All-Star break after beating the Celtics on Wednesday.
SGA isn’t on the injury report at all, but Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell remain out. For the Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Jalen Pickett and Spencer Jones are all questionable, while Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson remain out.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Best Prop Bets
Jamal Murray Under 2.5 3PM (+101)
Murray is questionable with an illness, so it’s uncertain if he’ll be able to play this game or not. If he does play, though, he could be limited and will be in a poor matchup against the Thunder’s tough backcourt defense.
Murray tried to play through a questionable tag on Wednesday, but he left after just eight minutes with two points and zero three-pointers made. Even if he gives it a go, he’ll likely be at less than full strength.
Even before the illness, Murray wasn’t regularly going over this prop line. He was held to two 3PM or fewer in five of his last six games and 11 of his last 18 (61%). He was going over this number more regularly before the return of Nikola Jokic, but with Jokic back to carry the workload, Murray has had to do less on offense.
Murray definitely has the ability to rise to the occasion in this marquee matchup, but given his recent form, his illness, and the matchup against a Thunder squad fired up to have their leader back, I think he’ll stay under this prop on Friday night.
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Isaiah Joe Over 9.5 Points (-117)
Joe has been one of the key Thunder scorers lately in the midst of all their injuries. He’s averaging 11.0 points per game on the season and has scored at least 10 points in each of OKC’s last seven home games.
He had 22 points in each of his last two games to help the Thunder beat the Raptors and the Cavaliers, and he has scored double-digit points in seven straight games overall.
Even with SGA back, Joe should still be a key contributor while Jalen Williams remains sidelined. SGA could be on a minutes restriction, and could also be less aggressive after his extended layoff. That opens the door for Joe to hit at least 10 points again on Friday against Denver.
Christian Braun Over 1.5 3PM (+116)
The Nuggets were looking for more offense from Braun this season, especially after they traded Michael Porter Jr. to the Nets. The 24-year-old from Kansas has struggled a bit, though, averaging only 10.0 points in 30.4 minutes per game in his 23 games.
He has averaged just 0.7 3PM per game on the year, but he has over 1.5 3PM in five straight games against the Thunder. Overall, he’s hit at least two threes in two of his last three contests, and has played bigger minutes since returning from his most recent injury in early February.
Without Watson and Gordon, there are shot opportunities available, and if Murray is out or limited, as well, Braun could get some extra work as he looks to finish the season strong and be a bigger part of Denver’s playoff push.
Bonus Parlay Pick: Cason Wallace Over 2.5 Assists (-143)
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) from this Friday night matchup, adding in the over on Wallace’s assists boosts the odds to a solid +1000 for these four Nuggets-Thunder bets.
Wallace has at least three assists in 10 straight games while helping to fill in for SGA. On the season, he’s averaging 2.5 assists per game, and with SGA likely at less than full speed, he should still be able to get to at least three assists again on Friday. He’s had at least five assists in four straight, including a 10-assist game against the Cavs. He won’t have to do that much creation on Friday, but should chip in at least three dimes.
