Michigan vs. Illinois College Basketball prediction, preview
The Saturday slate in college hoops is massive, per usual, but the game of the weekend might come on Friday night in the Big Ten. Two national contenders will square off in Champaign, as Michigan visits Illinois. The Wolverines had a similar showdown just six days earlier on a neutral floor against Duke, and came up short. But Friday night provides a chance to bounce back on the big stage.
Michigan got back in the win column at home earlier in the week, beating Minnesota by 10 points. But the Wolverines were far from dominant, failing to cover as 21.5-point favorites. I’m willing to chalk that one up to a tough sandwich spot, though, facing the Gophers after the loss to Duke with this big Friday night game on the road on deck.
Michigan is a perfect 9-0 in true road games this season, with the best wins coming at Purdue and Michigan State. Both teams have a ton of size and rank among the top rebounding teams in the country. They also both have elite offenses, with Michigan ranking fifth on KenPom and Illinois ranking first in the country. However, the difference in the game should come on defense, where the Wolverines rank second nationally, and the Illini are down at 31st.
I expect the road team to take better care of the ball against an Illinois team that does not force many turnovers, and to be able to use some extra possessions to find better shots. In some senses, it’s a good spot for Illinois, coming off a last-second loss in overtime to UCLA. That said, it’s also the Illini’s first game home off a long west coast trip that ended with playing extra minutes as Pauley Pavilion. Since the conference expanded out west, this has historically been a tough travel spot, even with home court.
This will be a new test this season for Illinois, which not only hasn’t been a home underdog this season, but has been favored by at least 8.5 points in each home game. The Illini have dropped home games to Nebraska (+9.5) and Wisconsin (+10), and will face their toughest home task yet. I think Michigan is more tested, more well prepared, and can dig in on defense to get a huge win in Big Ten play.
