The PGA TOUR started the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches on Thursday with the Bear Trap claiming some victims, plenty of balls in the water, and a red-hot start by Austin Smotherman, who held the lead after a blistering -9. The water-heavy course is sure to hold plenty of volatility once again in Round 2, with the morning tee times getting the best weather outlook as winds pick up and some clouds roll in this afternoon. Let’s jump into what to expect this Friday and take a look at a few Cognizant Classic best bets for Round 2.
You can build your betting card on DraftKings Sportsbook at any time throughout the tournament with a wide variety of offerings, including everything from single-player props to full-field scoring props and everything from one-hole results to where a specific player will place for the entire four-round event.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 2. With the morning groups underway, I’ll focus on three options from the later tee times.
Matchup (3 Way) – Round 2: Aaron Rai (+100) over John Keefer
Rai tees off at 12:11 p.m. ET with PGA TOUR rookie Johnny Keefer teeing off about an hour later in the 12:59 p..m. ET group. Rai should have a slight weather advantage since the wind will be stronger later in the day, but this pick is based much more on his strong performance on Thursday and more established form.
I picked Keefer in my cash game plays and like the PGA TOUR rookie a lot this week in his tournament debut. He had a solid Round 1 with just one bogey and two birdies for a -1. In his early PGA TOUR career, the 25-year-old has been pretty steady but hasn’t typically gone extremely low. In each of his last 10 rounds, he has finished between 69 and 73.
Rai is a much more well-known and established PGA TOUR veteran at 30 years old, and he claimed his first PGA TOUR victory at the Wyndham Championship in 2024. He had a solid 2025 with 10 top-25 finishes and a pair of top-five finishes. He played each of the last two weeks in the Signature Events with a T73 at Pebble Beach and a T28 at The Genesis Invitational. Rai was playing much better in that event before slipping to a 76 on Sunday.
On Thursday, Rai played cleanly with no bogeys and three birdies. He starts the day two shots ahead of Keefer, but he’ll need to post a lower score in this round to deliver a win for this even-money prop in this 3-way matchup, where a tie is scored as a loss rather than a push.
Austin Smotherman o3.5 Birdies or Better (-122)
Smotherman will have a hard time matching his Thursday success, but the 31-year-old should be able to make at least four birdies to get over this prop. He made five birdies on the front nine alone in Round 1 and then made four more on the back nine.
Smotherman was a longshot to win coming into this event, but he has some positive signs that Thursday wasn’t just a fluke. He ranks third in the field in Par 3 average and typically plays much better in Florida than on the West Coast swing. He spiked for a T8 at The American Express but missed the cut in the other three of his four events to start the season.
While this is his first tournament at PGA National, he typically plays well on Bermuda greens in the Sunshine State.
Ricky Castillo Round Score u70.5 (-102)
I had Castillo in my Round 1 props, and he delivered the over on his birdies or better prop with a fast start. He had three birdies on his first five holes and finished with five birdies and three bogeys for a 69 in Round 1.
With a little extra wind, Castillo could have a tougher time in Round 2, but if he can minimize his bogeys, he should get under this prop. Making the cut will be essential for the former Gator who is playing on Conditional Status on the PGA TOUR after finishing just short of the top 100 in the FedExCup Fall.
Castillo finished T56 last year in his tournament debut at PGA National, coming in under this prop in two of his four rounds and finishing just over it with a 71 in Round 2. Since he’s in better form this season, I think he’ll get in under par again on Friday afternoon.
