While the West is often portrayed as the NBA’s stronger conference, there’s something to be said about the battle brewing out East, where there are four teams who could genuinely all beat each other on any given night. The Detroit Pistons have the edge right now, with a 5.5-game lead over the Boston Celtics, a seven-game edge over the New York Knicks, and a 7.5-game lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers, but it’s the Cavaliers (+280) who are currently favored to win the conference.
Tonight, the teams will face off for the penultimate time this regular season in what could be a preview of either a second-round matchup or the Eastern Conference Finals. The game will begin in Detroit at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Cleveland will be fairly short-handed, as superstar guard Donovan Mitchell (groin) will miss his second straight game. James Harden (thumb), Keon Ellis (finger), Dennis Schröder (ankle), and Dean Wade (ankle) are all questionable. Meanwhile, the Pistons have a completely clean injury report with the exception of backup center Isaiah Stewart, who’s serving the sixth game of his seven-game suspension for his role in a brawl on February 9.
Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-245 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 227.5. The Cavaliers are +200 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this ESPN early game and offer a prediction.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons preview, prediction
For Cleveland, Harden’s injury hardly could’ve come at a worse time. The Beard had been stellar through his first seven games as a Cavalier, averaging 18.9 points per game and shooting 48.8% from beyond the arc, and while his thumb fracture is on his non-shooting hand, it’s hard to imagine that it won’t affect him at least slightly. The same can be said for Ellis, who has been spectacular both as a finisher and a defender since joining the team. Cleveland clearly has plenty of momentum — it is 7-2 with Ellis on the team — so the key will be making sure both new acquisitions are 100% by the time the postseason begins.
The Pistons’ grip on the East’s No. 1 seed is relatively secure at this point. But they currently have a 0.5-game lead on the Oklahoma City Thunder and a one-game lead on the San Antonio Spurs for the top overall seed, and holding onto that position would both bolster Cade Cunningham’s MVP case and give them home-court advantage in a potential NBA Finals against either opponent. Between Cunningham’s playmaking and defensive impact and Jalen Duren’s emergence as an impactful two-way big, Detroit has the tools to win its first title since 2003-04.
Cavaliers at Pistons pick, best bet
These two teams are peaking: in the last 15 games, the Cavaliers have the league’s second-best net rating and the Pistons rank third. Detroit has mostly won through its fifth-ranked defense and Cleveland through its league-best offense across that span, but both rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball, a mark of a contender. But being without Mitchell will hurt; this season, the Cavaliers have been 8.5 points per 100 possessions worse offensively with him on the bench, equivalent to the difference between having the top-ranked offense and the sixth-worst. In theory, Harden could help make up for some of that scoring punch and Ellis could help defensively, but with neither of those players 100% healthy, it’ll be hard to expect too much of them tonight.
The Pistons are tough to beat because they effectively build a brick wall around the rim, allowing the second-fewest shots and the second-lowest field goal percentage on restricted-area tries. Duren hasn’t been known as a defensive anchor throughout his career, but he’s saved 0.8 points per 100 possessions on rim contests this season. But Cleveland is nearly as strong a rim-protecting team, and Detroit is reliant on its interior play, ranking third in restricted-area attempts per game. The Cavaliers lose some of their driving without Mitchell, but they have more counters if the Pistons are able to minimize their impact inside.
Perhaps unsurprisingly for a team that thrives near the basket on both ends of the floor, Detroit is a dominant rebounding team, ranking third in total rebounding percentage. Cleveland isn’t a slouch in that department, either; it ranks 11th, including ninth across the last 15 games, though it is likely to be hurt without Mitchell’s six-foot-10 wingspan and otherworldly athleticism. Both teams have been pretty good in transition on both sides of the ball, but the Pistons should have an advantage without Mitchell, who’s averaging a career-high in deflections per 100 possessions. Detroit’s biggest issue is that it has been the league’s most foul-prone team, but the Cavaliers might not be well-suited to take advantage of that without Mitchell.
If Cleveland can wall off the interior as effectively as the Pistons can and turn the game into a shooting contest, it could easily win. While neither team has been great at generating easy looks, the Cavaliers just have much more raw shooting talent. Jaylon Tyson leads the league in three-point percentage over expectation and both Mitchell and Harden rank in the top 40, while each of the Pistons’ qualified shooters have connected on their threes at a lower rate than expected. The Cavaliers have allowed easier shots, but Detroit’s only trustworthy shooter is Duncan Robinson.
There’s easily a scenario in which Cleveland’s shooting propels it to an upset, especially since it can match the Pistons’ interior defense. However, the Cavaliers acquired Harden and Ellis because of the team’s struggles with Mitchell on the floor, and unless both men are able to play through their finger injuries with 100% effectiveness, Cleveland simply isn’t that good without Spida. Detroit’s slight advantages in interior play, rebounding, transition play, and three-point defense should be just enough to get it over the spread line.
