After a one-year hiatus in 2023-24, when Bayer Leverkusen won the Bundesliga in invincible fashion, Bayern Münich restored their place atop the German footballing hierarchy last season, claiming the title by 13 points over Leverkusen. This season, only one team is in a realistic position to stop Die Roten: Borussia Dortmund, which sits eight points behind with 11 matches to play.
The title could effectively be decided on Saturday, when BVB hosts Bayern at the Signal Iduna Park with a chance to cut the deficit to five. Der Klassiker will begin at 12:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. local).
Die Roten are -170 favorites to win the pivotal tie at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Dortmund is +340. There are +350 odds that the teams will share the points.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich prediction, pick
There hasn’t been much to separate these two teams domestically, as each has lost just once in the league: BVB to Bayern, and Die Roten to Augsburg. The difference between the two comes down to draws, as Bayern has drawn only thrice and Dortmund seven times, including in Matchweek 23. Die Roten have also been better in other competitions, advancing to the DfB-Pokal semifinals and finishing second in the League Phase table, while BVB blew a 2-0 aggregate lead to Atalanta and got eliminated against Die Werkself in the DfB-Pokal Round of 16. For Bayern, that’s a blessing and a curse: it is in better form than Dortmund, but fixture congestion could eventually catch up, especially with both goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and left-back Alphonso Davies injured.
Die Roten should present BVB with plenty of challenges, given that they have perhaps the most dominant striker in the world. Harry Kane’s 28 goals are more than double what the next-best players in the division have, and Luis Díaz (13 goals) and Michael Olise (10 goals and 16 assists) have combined to help Bayern build arguably the most devastating attack in Europe. As a team, Die Roten have scored 85 goals, 36 more than second-place Dortmund. They’ve also been the best defensive team in Germany, allowing a league-low 21 goals, 20 fewer shots on target than any other team. Basically Bayern’s only flaw is that it ranks dead last in the Bundesliga in tackles and clearances, but that’s mostly a result of leading the league in possession time. It also hasn’t been great at drawing fouls, but it has been so clinical from set pieces that it has taken advantage of its opportunities.
BVB might not have quite matched the Bavarian side’s dominance this season, but it definitely shouldn’t be underestimated. Serhou Guirassy is no Kane, but he’s finished near the top of the Bundesliga goal-scoring table in each of his three seasons and also finished in a tie for the Golden Boot in both the Champions League and the Club World Cup last season. But while the Guinean is the main man up front, it’s not like he hasn’t had help: Maximilian Beier, Julian Brandt, and Karim Adeyemi have all chipped in with at least eight goal contributions each, and Dortmund trails only Die Roten in goals and expected goals per shot. BVB is also the second-best defensive team in Germany, allowing just one more goal than Bayern and even out-pacing it in aerial duel win rate. Dortmund is also one of just two teams not to allow a fast-break goal, and it has made the fewest errors leading to a goal.
With both teams playing fairly deliberately in the attack and utilizing a high-press at high rates, Die Roten should have an advantage, given that they’ve been the more clinical passing team, and BVB is too vulnerable against set-pieces. Still, I like Dortmund to get on the scoresheet, too, given that it loves to press and Bayern has made the most errors leading to a shot. Both teams scored in the teams’ first matchup, as Brandt found a way through via a set-piece in the 84th minute. A similar result only makes sense.
