When the margins are as fine as they are in the Western Conference, every possession matters, so the fact that the Los Angeles Lakers have a stretch of 15 home games in 18 in the stretch run of the season is pivotal for their chances of improving playoff seeding. But tonight is a rare exception, as the Lakers will hit the road for a two-game set against the Phoenix Suns at 9 p.m. ET and the Golden State Warriors on Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Tonight’s game could have especially large playoff implications, given the teams’ proximity in the standings. Los Angeles currently holds onto the West’s sixth seed at 34-23, but the Suns (33-26) are just two games behind, and the teams face off once more in the penultimate game of the season.
The Lakers should have a full slate of options, with only Rui Hachimura (illness) questionable. Phoenix, meanwhile, will be without three of its best players, with Devin Booker (hip), Dillon Brooks (hand), and Jordan Goodwin (calf) all absent.
Given all of the Suns’ injuries, the Lakers are 5.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-205 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 220.5. Phoenix is +170 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this 6-7 battle and offer a prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns preview, prediction
Los Angeles went just 4-4 on its home stand, but its last result was arguably its most confounding: battling down the stretch with the Orlando Magic, Luka Dončić had a wide-open three to win the game but “thought [he] was a little bit far” and decided not to shoot, a surprising decision given Dončić’s penchant for back-breaking deep threes. The loss brought the Lakers back to 11 games over .500 — exactly where they were on November 30. Los Angeles built itself enough cushion in the early part of the season to at least stay in the top-six hunt, but playing .500 ball over the course of three months isn’t exactly confidence-inspiring.
For the Suns, the blows came in rapid succession right after the All-Star break. Just nine minutes into the game, Booker left the court with his hip strain and didn’t return. The following game, Brooks played just seven minutes before breaking his hand and Goodwin left in the fourth quarter after sustaining a calf strain. Overall, Phoenix is cold, going just 3-7 in its last 10 games to drop back into the Play-In Tournament picture, and it could struggle until its stars are able to return from their injuries. Booker should be back soon, but Brooks could miss the remainder of the regular season.
Lakers at Suns pick, best bet
The Suns are fairly used to playing without Booker, who’s missed 15 games this season, but those games have made his impact clear. They’re just 6-9 in those games and have also lost two of the three games in which he’s left early, though it’s worth noting that one of those games was against the Lakers. All in all, Phoenix has been 8.0 points per 100 possessions worse with him off the court, and it hasn’t scored more than 100 points in regulation in six of the last eight games that he’s either missed or left early. The Suns’ Booker-less offensive impotence could be just what Los Angeles, which has had just the 26th-ranked defense since December 1, needs.
Without Booker, Phoenix will be incapable of putting pressure on the rim. Over the last 14 games — in which Booker has played just 73 total minutes — the Suns have attempted a league-low 20.8 shots per game within five feet and converted such shots at the third-lowest accuracy. Meanwhile, that’s the Lakers’ biggest defensive weakness, as they’ve allowed the third-highest percentage on such shots. Phoenix’s rim protection isn’t great either — it has allowed the fifth-highest accuracy on such shots — and while Los Angeles isn’t a good driving team, it has been ever-so-slightly better at getting downhill since the All-Star break, when Austin Reaves’ minutes restriction was lifted.
Both of these teams are pretty solid at rebounding, with the Lakers especially strong on the defensive glass and the Suns strong on the offensive glass, but Phoenix could struggle a little bit without Goodwin, as it has snagged boards at a rate 4.5 percentage points higher with him on the floor. The Suns should have a big edge in transition, as they rank second in steals per game and are far better defensively in fast-break situations. But they’ve been among the most foul-prone teams, as well as among the worst at drawing contact, while Los Angeles has been brilliant in both facets.
Neither team has been great at shooting the three-ball, as each ranks in the middle tertile in three-point percentage, but Phoenix has been far more reliant on it, attempting the sixth-most per game while the Lakers try the sixth-fewest. Both of these teams should make life difficult for the other’s shooters: the Lakers have given up the eighth-fewest wide-open threes and the Suns the second-fewest, though Phoenix has been slightly worse since Booker went down, and it’ll also be missing Brooks, who’s caused Dončić to miss all five of his three-point tries when they’ve been matched up. For the season, the Suns have been much better at generating uncontested looks, but without Booker, they’ve both created fewer wide-open threes and were less accurate at making them.
Without an effective counter to either Dončić’s offensive brilliance or his sometimes lackadaisical defense, I’m expecting big things from both Los Angeles and its star. Phoenix simply doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage of the Lakers’ most glaring weakness, so as long as Los Angeles takes care of the ball — which should be easier without the hounding Brooks — it should cover the spread pretty comfortably.
