Amid everything that’s gone wrong in the LA Clippers’ season, from the Aspiration scandal that has hung over the entire season to a 6-21 start to the James Harden and Ivica Zubac trades, the Kawhi Leonard ($9,900) renaissance seemed like the only positive storyline. Since December 20 — the start of the Clippers’ turnaround — Leonard has appeared in all but three games and averaged 30.1 points and 2.1 steals per game on 50-40-88 shooting splits. He was trending towards being a shoo-in for just his second All-NBA appearance in five seasons.
But Leonard can only miss four more games in order to remain above the 65-game threshold, and he’s been ruled out for tonight’s 10:10 p.m. ET game against the Minnesota Timberwolves while dealing with left ankle soreness. It’s unclear whether it’s regular maintenance or a new injury, but given that LA hasn’t suited up since February 22 — when Leonard had 37 points, two blocks, and three steals (62.5 FPTS) in a loss to the Orlando Magic — and won’t play again until March 1, it’s plausible that the Clippers just want to give Leonard a break before they play five games in the first seven days of the month. John Collins ($6,200), who has a head laceration, will join Leonard on the sidelines.
Kobe Sanders ($3,900) had already stepped into LA’s starting lineup in Collins’ place prior to the game against Orlando, so it’s likely that he’ll remain there tonight. Bennedict Mathurin ($6,600) should be the biggest beneficiary tonight, as he’ll likely join the starting lineup and serve as the primary scoring option. Mathurin has been extremely solid in his first five games as a Clipper, averaging 22.0 points and 6.2 rebounds (38.8 FPTS) per game, and perhaps most encouragingly, he’s gotten to the free-throw line nine times per night so far, an even higher rate than Leonard.
Despite the Timberwolves having several elite perimeter defenders and giving up the 10th-fewest FPTS per game to opposing shooting guards and small forwards, I still like Mathurin as a value option, both because his usage rate will be high and because his physical offensive style makes him a difficult matchup for a Minnesota team that fouls at the league’s fourth-highest rate. The Timberwolves are also very gettable from the corner, and Mathurin has canned 54.8% of his corner triples this season (though on low volume).
Prior to the latest batch of injury news, Minnesota was a 5.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. Once Leonard was ruled out, the Timberwolves moved to be 7.5-point favorites (-310 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 222.5. LA is +250 on the Moneyline.
