The Mavericks are hosting the Kings on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 236.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for the game.
Mavericks vs. Kings Preview
The Mavericks and Kings meet for the third time this season Thursday and this season series has been split so far with one win apiece. Dallas sits 12th in the Western Conference at 21-36, while Sacramento sits dead last in the West with the worst record in the NBA at 13-47.
The Mavericks, per usual, have a very crowded injury report with most notably Cooper Flagg (foot) sidelined. P.J Washington (ankle) is also out and Daniel Gafford (ankle) is doubtful. While Flagg is the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year with -300 odds for the award on DraftKings Sportsbook, averaging 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game, Dallas’ net rating is actually 3.5 points per 100 possessions better with the Duke product off the floor. This is due to the team’s defense being better sans Flagg and the Mavericks are an average 4-4 with him inactive, including back-to-back wins entering tonight. These two victories were over the hapless Pacers and Nets, but they came on the road and Dallas is facing an even worse Kings team tonight, that is playing it’s second game in two nights after getting embarrassed by the Rockets on Wednesday, 128-97.
With Flagg and Washington out, Naji Marshall, Max Christie and Brandon Williams will act as the Mavericks’ main scorers, and with Gafford missing, Marvin Bagley should start at center. The former lottery pick was just acquired from the Wizards at the deadline and he is coming off a 22-point outing vs. the Brooklyn, which comes after back-to-back double-doubles, all of which came off the bench. Going against Sacramento’s poor defense that ranks second-to-last in rating this season, Bagley should tally a big double-double.
Like the Mavericks, the Kings are also missing many key players, with Domantas Sabonis (knee) and Zach LaVine (finger) done for the season. Keegan Murray (ankle) also got hurt in last night’s loss to Houston and feels unlikely to play. Sacramento has embarrassingly only won once in their last 18 games. The organization wants the team to lose at this point of the season, to better the Kings’ chances in the lottery.
With Sabonis, LaVine and Murray missing tonight, veterans Russell Westbrook and DeMar DeRozan will see high usage rates, but them playing limited minutes given the team is tanking and playing it’s second game in two nights is very possible. Rookies Maxime Raynaud and Nique Clifford should see the most work, but that won’t set Sacramento up for success, especially with this being the second leg of a back-to-back set. When playing their second game in two nights this season, the Kings are 2-8 with an ugly 16.3-point margin of defeat.
Mavericks vs. Kings Pick, Best Bet
While the depleted Mavericks are nothing to brag about, they are at home tonight and still the more competent team than this Kings squad that is likely to be unmotivated after getting blown out in Houston last night.
Dallas is 5-3 ATS with Flagg inactive this season and backing the Mavericks -6.5 is the right move for this tilt.
