I don’t think I have to remind anyone of the championship game in the last World Baseball Classic. Japan took home first place over the USA in a contest that even a Hollywood script writer would have called too perfect to believe. Up 3-2 in the ninth, Shohei Ohtani went to the mound to close things out against a stacked lineup of American hitters — a lineup that included then Ohtani teammate Mike Trout. You know the rest. Ohtani pumps gas. Trout strikes out. We all realize how awesome the WBC is.
Fast forward three years, and the next edition of the event is ready to get underway next week in Tokyo. Before the international baseball action begins, let’s break down the odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Is Japan favored to repeat? Is there any value betting on the USA? Are there any dark horse teams?
Let’s dive in.
2026 World Baseball Classic Odds
Should the USA be the favorites?
With insurance issues hamstringing the top-end talent that Puerto Rico (+1600) is able to roster — both Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa were deemed ineligible to play — there’s really only four countries with a realistic chance at winning this tournament: USA (-115), Japan (+330), Dominican Republic (+400) and Venezuela (+900). Also, while it might not be the sexiest pick, it’s the Americans that are the best bet on the board.
The USA was one run away from winning the WBC in 2023, despite the fact that the team’s pitching staff left a lot to be desired. Remember, Kyle Freeland pitched in a bulk role in the championship game against Japan, giving up a key home run to now Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto. It’s not like Freeland was the only weak link, though. As has often been the case with the World Baseball Classic, the USA had a difficult time recruiting elite starting pitchers to a tournament in the middle of Spring Training, which lead to a staff headlined by the likes of Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn and Adam Wainwright. This time around will be very different. Reigning Cy Young Award winners Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes are both on the 2026 roster, and while the former has admitted he’ll only be making a single start during pool play, the USA now has starting depth in the form of Logan Webb, Joe Ryan and Nolan McLean. Heck, even Clay Holmes or Matthew Boyd would have been the ace on that ’23 staff.
The other massive advantage that the USA has in the 2026 World Baseball Classic is the bracket. Pool B does contain Mexico (+2500), who beat the Americans in the round robin three years ago, but the USA should have little issue locking up a top two seed with wins against Great Britain (+20000), Brazil (+40000) and Italy (+8000) — though the Italians do possess some household names in Vinnie Pasquantino, Aaron Nola and Jac Caglianone. Pool B will then play the advancing squads in Pool A in the quarterfinals and semifinals, a group of teams without a clear powerhouse thanks to Puerto Rico’s aforementioned legal woes. As such, there’s a decent chance the USA’s path back to the WBC final will just be Canada (+4000) and a second encounter with the Mexicans. Now, Canada’s roster is no joke. It’ll field a lineup entirely comprised of MLB talent, with the Naylor brothers leading the offensive charge. However, like most “sleepers” at this event, Canada simply lacks pitching depth, especially with Cade Smith, Matt Brash and Nick Pivetta all opting not to play in this year’s event.
What about Japan?
Japan are heavy favorites to win Pool C, which is being hosted in Tokyo. In fact, the DraftKings Sportsbook has them listed at -700, which trails only the Americans’ odds to win Pool B at -800. However, pool play is not what Japanese fans are currently worried about. Unlike in 2023, when Japan got a relatively “cupcake” matchup in the quarterfinals against Italy, this year the team will almost certainly have to square off with both the Dominican Republic and Venezuela in the knockout round, as both teams are incredibly likely to advance out of Pool D. Add in a probable rematch in the championship game with the USA, and that means if Japan wants to bring home a fourth WBC crown, it’ll have to take down the three best non-Japanese squads in this tournament — in succession, no less.
The other elephant in the room is Japan’s pitching staff, which does not project to be nearly as fearsome as it was in 2023. We all saw in this past year’s World Series how dominant Yoshinobu Yamamoto can be, but he’s just one man. It’s also March, not October. Concerns are more about Yamamoto’s supporting cast, anyway. Yu Darvish, Roki Sasaki and Shota Imanaga are not on the 2026 roster, and the aforementioned Ohtani will only be available as a DH. That puts a lot of pressure on the likes of Yusei Kikuchi and Tomoyuki Sugano, along with a host of highly accomplished NPB starters.
There’s no doubt that Japan can slug its way to another successful WBC showing, but it might not have the depth of arms to survive a three-game run against the Dominicans, the Venezuelans and the Americans. It also doesn’t help that Japan has real question marks at both shortstop and in centerfield. Is Seiya Suzuki really going to man CF as manager Hirokazu Ibata claims? That seems like an issue!
Can the Dominican Republic Rebound?
If there is a squad that I like coming out of this side of the bracket, it’s the DR at +400 odds. No country had a more disappointing showing in the 2023 World Baseball Classic than the Dominican Republic, which dropped pool play games to both Venezuela and Puerto Rico in what had been dubbed the “Group of Death” in that tournament. That meant the 2013 champions didn’t even make it to the knockout round, which, as you can imagine, was not well received back on the baseball-obsessed island.
So, much like the USA, it now appears that the Dominicans are heading into the 2026 WBC on a mission fueled by past disappointment. I don’t want to degrade a roster that included the likes of Julio Rodriguez, Juan Soto and Manny Machado — all of whom are back for this year’s event — but it is not an exaggeration to say that this year’s collection of players is a vast improvement. In fact, with Junior Caminero, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. as additions, the Dominican Republic’s batting order will be a sight to behold.
This also wouldn’t be a WBC conversation unless we talked about pitching. Yet that’s an area where the Dominicans again resemble the Americans. In 2023, in a must-win game against Puerto Rico, the DR sent a 37-year-old Johnny Cueto to the mound. He promptly surrendered three earned runs in two innings of work in an eventual 5-2 loss. That won’t be the case this time around. Cristopher Sanchez is now this squad’s ace, and he’ll be followed in the rotation by Sandy Alcantara, Brayan Bello and Luis Severino. Those are four high quality MLB starters in the prime of their careers, that will be backed up by a bullpen with more legitimate, high-whiff stuff. To be blunt, this is a team that’s designed to go all the way.
2026 World Baseball Classic FAQs
When does the tournament start?
The first game of the 2026 WBC will take place between Chinese Taipei and Australia on March 4 at 10:00 p.m. ET in Toyko, Japan.
When is the USA’s first game?
The USA will begin its play in Pool B on March 6 at 8:00 p.m. ET in a matchup with Brazil.
Who is favored to win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Team USA are the favorites at -115 odds.
Which countries have won the World Baseball Classic?
Just three. Japan in 2006, 2009 and 2023, the Dominican Republic in 2013 and the USA in 2017.
