In the always-competitive ACC, SMU (19-8, 8-6) might not be the first name college basketball fans think of. However, sleep on these Mustangs at your own peril. They come into Wednesday having won four of their last five games, most recently crushing Boston College 94-70. Tonight, another bubble squad in Cal (19-8, 7-7) will attempt to make a statement of their own. Can the Golden Bears pick up a much-needed win at home?
SMU enters this evening as 3.5-point favorites (-112) over California. The total is set at 162.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Wednesday’s game between the Mustangs and Golden Bears.
SMU vs. Cal prediction, preview
If you’re looking for a bubble team to latch onto over the next month, SMU is worth consideration. The Mustangs are a fun watch, ranking ninth on KenPom with a 126.0 adjusted offensive efficiency. Unsurprisingly, this squad has recorded impressive counting stats on that end of the floor. Leading the way is Kevin “Boopie” Miller, who paces the team with 18.7 points and 6.9 assists per game. Guards Jaron Pierre (17.6 PPG) and B.J. Edwards (13.0 PPG, 6.0 REB, 5.0 AST) have been crucial, as well. Down low, seven-foot center Samet Yigitoglu is posting 7.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game.
With all that being said, the Mustangs are not quite as focused when it comes to slowing down the other team. They’ve allowed 77.6 points per game, ranking 284th out of 365 Division I schools. To boot, it’s the second-worst mark in the ACC. Southern Methodist is also surrendering 16.3 assists per game to opponents, seventh-worst among all high-major programs. Finding a way to get stops on the perimeter will be crucial tonight for SMU.
Speaking of defending the perimeter, Darrin “Dai Dai” Ames could be a matchup nightmare for SMU. Cal’s leading scorer is averaging 17.1 points per game on 47% shooting, all while knocking down 39% of his three-point attempts. Guard Justin Pippen (14.6 PPG) is joined by forwards John Camden (14.4 PPG) and Chris Bell (13.7 PPG). The end result is a well-rounded offense that can operate inside or outside of the paint. Still, the Golden Bears sit at a modest 116.2 adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom, 76th in the nation.
There isn’t anything California does exceptionally well or exceptionally poor. This is a competitive, middle of the road ACC crew. The school has earned four Quad 1 wins, including triumphs over #18 North Carolina, UCLA, and Miami. It’s worth mentioning that the Golden Bears have gone 15-3 when playing at the Haas Pavilion. Still, their three defeats were blowouts against #1 Duke, #24 Louisville and Clemson. In terms of talent, SMU is in the same tier as the latter two on that list. It’s also worth noting that Cal is lacking in terms of depth. Head coach Mark Madsen only has five players averaging more than 4.0 points per game at his disposal.
SMU vs. Cal pick, best bet
Make no mistake: SMU’s defense is not on par with most other NCAA Tournament-caliber squads. With that being said, the Mustangs have an exceptional offense, which is more than their opponents can say tonight. It’s been a stellar campaign for Cal, going above .500 for the first time in nine seasons. However, this matchup feels like a step up in weight class.
