There are several sets of brothers in the NBA, with Stephen and Seth Curry, Amen and Ausar Thompson, and LaMelo and Lonzo Ball probably the most notable current sets. But arguably the most unlikely set of brothers in the league is Pat and Cam Spencer, as Cam was a late second-round pick and Pat was one of the greatest college lacrosse players ever before playing one season of college basketball and going undrafted.
The Spencer brothers will face off for the third time this season when Pat’s Golden State Warriors travel to face Cam’s Memphis Grizzlies at 7:40 p.m. ET.
Both teams have lengthy injury reports. Both Curry brothers (sciatica for Seth and a knee injury for Stephen), Jimmy Butler III (torn ACL), De’Anthony Melton (knee), and Kristaps Porziņġis (illness) are among the players out for Golden State, with Draymond Green (back) questionable. Meanwhile, for Memphis, Santi Aldama (knee), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger), Brandon Clarke (calf), Cedric Coward (knee), Zach Edey (ankle), and Ja Morant (elbow) remain out, with Kyle Anderson (knee) questionable.
Regardless, the Warriors are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 225.5. The Grizzlies are +145 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets.
Ty Jerome 18+ Points (+119)
I chose Jerome to score 20 or more points among my favorite prop bets on Monday, and though he was a late scratch with an illness, my confidence in him remains. Jerome has only played seven games this season after suffering a severe calf strain during the preseason, but he’s been extremely effective, averaging 19.3 points per game on 51-40-86 shooting splits in just 20.6 minutes per game, scoring at least 18 points five times. It’s unclear when his minutes restriction will increase, but his usage rate should remain high.
Golden State, meanwhile, has had the equivalent of an elite defense with Stephen Curry off the floor across the season as a whole, but that hasn’t been the case since Curry’s most recent injury. Since the start of February, the Warriors have ranked just 17th on that side of the ball. In fact, they’ve gotten relatively lucky not to have had a worse defense, given that opponents have converted their wide-open threes at just a 35.6% rate across that span. Golden State has also given up the seventh-highest field goal percentage in the non-restricted paint, where Jerome likes to operate.
Gui Santos 7+ Rebounds (-127)
Since Butler went down with his torn ACL on January 19, Santos has been pretty solid, averaging 12.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game while making 41.4% of his threes across that span. The Brazilian posted a new career high in rebounds in Golden State’s loss to the New Orleans Pelicans last night with a 15-point, 12-board double-double, and all things considered, he’s had at least eight boards in three of his last six games. His playing time increase even further tonight if Green, who occasionally sits out one end of a back-to-back, ends up resting.
Santos should have a good chance of snagging at least seven boards again against a Memphis team that has been without a center since it traded Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jock Londale to the Utah Jazz on February 3. Since the trade deadline, the Grizzlies rank second-to-last with a putrid 45.4% rebounding percentage, which would be the worst in NBA history across a full season. Memphis is likely to start the six-foot-seven Olivier-Maxence Prosper at center tonight, so the undersized Santos might not even have a height disadvantage.
Pat Spencer 7+ Assists (+102)
Spencer has started each of the last seven games, averaging 27.3 minutes per game since Curry went down, though he has been pretty inconsistent in his role (the Warriors have been outscored by 38 points with him on the court despite going a respectable 3-5 across that span). He and Green have largely split the additional playmaking responsibility, but with Green’s minutes potentially taking a hit on the second night of a back-to-back, Spencer should have the bulk of the burden tonight. All in all, he’s had seven or more assists in three of his last six games, averaging a team-leading 10.8 potential assists per game since entering the starting lineup.
As might be expected from a team that has ranked 28th in defensive rating since the start of February, the Grizzlies haven’t been great at slowing down opposing passers, allowing the fourth-most assists per game this month. Memphis has had some bright spots defensively this month, as it ranks third in deflections per game, but that also leaves it prone to mistakes, especially against ball movement-heavy offenses like Golden State’s. Spencer had seven assists in the Warriors’ 114-113 win on February 9.
