Nikola Jokić has arguably been the defining player of the 2020’s. The Boston Celtics have arguably been the defining team of the 2020’s. Even though the Celtics have yet to meet Jokić’s Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals, their battles always carry intrigue. This season’s have been no exception, even with Jokić missing the first meeting due to injury and Jayson Tatum missing both.
They’ll face off for the second time this season — their first before a potential NBA Finals matchup — tonight at 10:10 p.m. ET in Denver.
Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Peyton Watson (hamstring) remain out for the Nuggets, while Boston has been pretty healthy while waiting for Tatum’s eventual return. Jaylen Brown (knee) didn’t play last night when the Celtics beat the Phoenix Suns, but it’s likely that he’ll suit up tonight.
Even with Gordon and Watson absent, Denver is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-162 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 228.5. Boston is +136 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s possible Finals preview.
Jaylen Brown O28.5 Points (-109)
Assuming Brown plays and isn’t on a minutes restriction, he should reach 29 points fairly comfortably. He’s hit the mark in four of his seven games this month, including a 32-point outburst against the Los Angeles Lakers the most recent time he took the court, and for the season, he’s done so in 31 of his 51 games. His efficiency hasn’t been great as of late — he’s hit just 18.8% of his three-pointers across his last five games — so as soon as his jumper gets back to normal, his scoring should jump as a result.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets just aren’t great defensively. They rank just 22nd in defensive rating for the season, and they’ve been 7.7 points per 100 possessions worse with Gordon off the floor. In particular, Denver has been one of the league’s worst rim-protecting teams, and Brown has been solid both at getting downhill and converting once he gets inside. Watson did a pretty good job guarding him in the teams’ first matchup, limiting him to four-for-10 shooting and four turnovers, and he had 33 points in that matchup regardless.
Cameron Johnson 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+198)
Johnson’s Nuggets tenure got off to a brutal start, as he shot just 21.1% from beyond the arc in his first 11 games with the team while Michael Porter Jr., the man he was traded for, has thrived with the Brooklyn Nets. But since that cold stretch, he’s been quietly spectacular, hitting 48.7% of his threes over his 23 games since, including 52.3% in a 17-game stretch prior to his going down with a hyperextended knee in which he hit at least three threes in eight separate games. He hasn’t made more than two in a game since returning from his injury on February 7, but his minutes restriction appears to have been lifted.
He has a decent shot of hitting three against the Celtics, who live by the three and die by the three. Boston has attempted the second-most three-pointers per game this season and allowed the seventh-most deep tries. As a result, the Celtics have also allowed an above-average number of wide-open threes, as well as the sixth-most catch-and-shoot threes. Johnson could be a big beneficiary: he ranks second on the team in catch-and-shoot tries per game and leads the team in wide-open threes per game, hitting at a 39.9% clip or higher in both splits.
Nikola Jokić U37.5 Points + Assists (-105)
Fading Jokić is always a risky strategy, given that he plays at an MVP level every single time he takes the court, and while he’s had a few rough games after returning from the hyperextended knee that cost him a month, the 35-point, 12-assist masterpiece that he put up against the Golden State Warriors on Sunday night is fresh on the mind. But 37.5 points + assists is an extremely high bar, and Jokić has fallen short of it in five of his last nine games overall.
Boston is a team that’s well-built to slow him down, to the extent that slowing him down is possible. The Celtics have allowed 2.9 fewer shots per game within five feet than any other team, and more than one-third of Jokić’s shot attempts come in that zone. They’ve also limited opponents to the eighth-lowest percentage within that zone. Plus, Boston has been the league’s fourth-best rebounding team, and 4.8 of Jokić’s points come via second-chance opportunities. Finally, the Celtics rank in the top six in opponent assists per game for the fifth consecutive season.
