UPDATE: Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley (injury management) and guard Donovan Mitchell (groin) have been ruled out for tonight’s game. Cavaliers guard James Harden (thumb) is questionable.
With how wide-open the Eastern Conference is this season — the top four teams all have between +290 and +400 odds of winning the conference — the Cleveland Cavaliers’ aggression at the trade deadline made sense. With James Harden now in tow, the Cavaliers, who finished with the best record in the East last season before getting off to a slow start to this regular season, have risen to the top of the heap.
After beating the New York Knicks last night, the Cavaliers have risen into a tie for third in the East. They’ll get right back to action tonight with a game against a much easier East opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks. The game is set to begin at 8:10 p.m. ET.
Neither team has submitted its injury report yet, but Cleveland had every member of its regular rotation available last night and Milwaukee was only without Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf), who remains without a timetable for return.
The Cavaliers are 8.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-340 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 227.5. The Bucks are +270 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this matchup and offer a prediction.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks preview, prediction
With the win over New York, Cleveland improved its record in February to 8-1, with a narrow loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder its only setback. Harden’s offensive role has been small — Donovan Mitchell remains the Cavaliers’ No. 1 option — but he’s been wildly efficient, averaging 18.9 points and 8.0 assists per game and shooting 48.8% from beyond the arc, and Cleveland has been winning despite Mitchell suffering through a shooting slump and Evan Mobley missing all but three games in the last month. New arrival Keon Ellis has been good defensively.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, is in survival mode. Improbably, it has won seven of its last nine games, including a win over the Thunder. Kevin Porter Jr. has been hot, scoring at least 21 points in each of his last three games, Ryan Rollins has continued his Most Improved Player-worthy campaign, and new arrival Cam Thomas has put the ball in the basket, putting up 34 points in his second game with the team. To be fair, the Bucks have played mostly easy teams during their recent run, but you can only beat the teams in front of you, and Milwaukee has done just that.
Cavaliers at Bucks pick, best bet
For the Bucks to have ranked seventh in offensive rating in the 12 games since Antetokounmpo last suited up is a testament to Porter’s and Thomas’ offensive strengths. Milwaukee has been hitting its shots, ranking within the top 10 in both effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage across that span, and improbably, it’s been rebounding well. But the Bucks have sacrificed defensively, ranking seventh-to-last in defensive rating. That could be a major problem against the Cavaliers, who lead the league in offensive and net rating across the same span and just welcomed back Mobley, who has made a positive impact on both ends of the floor.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Milwaukee’s rim protection has been especially poor in the last 12 games, as it has allowed the third-highest percentage in the restricted area across that span. Myles Turner, once a fifth-place finisher in Defensive Player of the Year voting, has had the worst season of his career by rim points saved per 100 possessions. The Bucks could get away with that against Cleveland; despite having two of the top 12 players in the league by gravity, the Cavaliers haven’t been a great driving or finishing team since Harden’s arrival. However, they’ve been better at both driving and finishing than Milwaukee has while allowing the third-lowest percentage at the rim on the other end.
The Bucks could actually have an edge on the glass; despite losing one of the league’s best rebounders in Antetokounmpo, they’ve actually ranked ninth in rebounding percentage since his injury, though in large part, that’s a result of opponents contesting their boards at the league’s lowest rate. Cleveland, meanwhile, has ranked just 13th in rebounding percentage since Harden’s arrival. Neither team has been great in transition, but the Cavaliers have been less turnover-prone despite Harden individually ranking eighth in turnovers per 100 possessions. Cleveland also has a better foul differential, as Mitchell and Harden are both among the league’s best at drawing contact.
Both of these teams should be able to shoot the cover off the ball. Even since losing Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee ranks fourth in three-point percentage and the Cavaliers sixth, and that’s not a total fluke, given that the teams rank second and third, respectively, in field goal percentage on wide-open threes after finishing first and second in the same stat last season. Across the last 12 games, no team has given up more wide-open looks than the Bucks, but Cleveland has given up plenty itself and has gotten a little bit more fortunate that opponents haven’t been particularly accurate on such looks.
Ultimately, the Cavaliers’ elite rim protection and the Bucks’ lack of deterrence should be enough to give Cleveland its ninth win in 10 games, but this recent Milwaukee top-10 offense somehow might be more real than the Cavaliers’ recent top-10 defense. This game could be a shootout. Three of each team’s last five games have gone over the total.
