In the late window of Wednesday’s NBA schedule, we get an interesting duel between a couple of contenders. The Boston Celtics sit second in the Eastern Conference and are undefeated coming out of the All-Star break; the Denver Nuggets look a smidge sluggish at the moment but remain fourth in the Western Conference themselves.
Here’s a Celtics vs. Nuggets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s game.
Celtics vs. Nuggets prediction, preview
Boston Celtics
In what was supposed to be a soft retooling year, the Celtics are 38-19 and sit second in their conference. With Jaylen Brown making a dark-horse argument for MVP and whispers of Jayson Tatum’s return growing in volume, the playoff push does hold some real excitement for this team. They’re also winners of all three games since the season resumed and are 9-1 across their last 10, so the momentum on Boston’s side is difficult to deny.
With a +7.8 NETRTG, the Celtics are third in the NBA in the stat. The interesting part is that they drag the pace and play at the slowest tempo in the league as well, but this style clearly works. Boston averages 115.0 PPG but has the second-best OFFRTG. The roster ranks third in shot attempts and second in three-point attempts, connecting at a 46.7% clip from the field and 36.2% rate from deep. The C’s rank third in 3PM/GM with 15.4, truly emphasizing the three-ball. While their 24.2 assists are the second-fewest of any team, a 2.012 AST/TO ratio ranks seventh. They’re also fifth in rebounding with 45.9 boards per game. Defensively, Joe Mazzula’s scheme holds opponents to a league-low 107.6 PPG with the NBA’s best DEFRTG as well.
Leading star Jaylen Brown averages 29.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.9 assists in the best season of his career, though he didn’t play the first leg of this back-to-back last night and the Celtics are yet to release an injury report for tonight. Guards Payton Pritchard and Derrick White contribute 17.4 and 17.1 points apiece with 5.4 and 5.7 assists, making up a dynamic backcourt. Nikola Vucevic comes off the bench to begin his tenure with the C’s but averages 11.2 points and 7.7 rebounds over his six games here as well.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets remain fourth in the Western Conference with a 36-22 record, but their recent play before and after the break has provided a momentary bump in the road for a team that still looks like a potential Finals threat. Smacking the Trail Blazers by 54 points came between a one-point loss to the Clippers and an 11-point L to the Warriors, so they’re looking to get back on the right foot now.
Denver’s NETRTG of +4.6 falls seventh in the league and the team’s pace sits 23rd. There’s a ton to like about this group and its elite offense, scoring an NBA-best 120.8 PPG with the top OFFRTG. The Nuggets have top-two marks in both FG% (49.5%) and 3P% (39.4%) and tally 28.2 assists per game with the league’s top AST/TO ratio at 2.187. This offense is a buzzsaw, though the team is a bit lacking on the other side of the ball. The Nuggets are only 21st in rebounding with 43.0 boards a night and allow 116.3 PPG to opponents with the 24th-ranked DEFRTG.
At the top of the leaderboard is, of course, Nikola Jokic. The Serbian averages 28.8 points with the league lead in rebounds (12.5) and assists (10.5) per game, dominating each time he steps on the floor. Jamal Murray posts 25.5 points and 7.5 assists alongside him. While Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson remain sidelined, Tim Hardaway Jr. averages 13.9 PPG and Cameron Johnson provides 11.7 PPG, each hitting above 40% of their threes. Christian Braun brings 10.2 PPG as well.
Celtics vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Nuggets as -3.5 home favorites tonight with -162 odds on the Moneyline. The Celtics are listed at +136 on the ML with the game total set at 228.5 combined points.
The injury report will likely shift these lines somewhat, especially since everything hinges on Jaylen Brown’s availability. If he’s going to be able to play tonight, I actually quite like the C’s to keep this game close and cover given their shot volume and that the Nuggets don’t defend the three-pointer particularly well — an opponent 3P% of 35.9% falls around league average but they’re 24th in 3PA and 22nd in 2PM allowed. I do expect Denver to lead and win in the end, but this Boston defense should be able to do just enough to slow its opponent down a tad.
When these teams last met on January 7, the Nuggets won 114-110. With that caveat, I like pushing an alt spread of +4.5 for Boston. The Celtics are 33-24 ATS this season, but that extra point does make enough of a difference in a matchup between top teams that I prefer the alt line.
Top pick: BOS Celtics +4.5 (-129)
