A massive Atlantic 10 matchup is on tap tonight in Ohio. #23 Saint Louis (25-2, 13-1) has been the team to beat all season, looking the part of a mid-major powerhouse. Granted, the Billikens did suffer a massive upset vs. Rhode Island last Tuesday. That should give Dayton (18-9, 9-5) some hope heading into this matchup. The Flyers aren’t pushovers, tied for third in the conference standings. A win over a ranked foe would give this squad a massive boost before the end of the regular season.
Saint Louis enters Tuesday as 3.5-point favorites (-112) over Dayton. The total is set at 156.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for today’s game between the Billikens and Flyers.
Saint Louis vs. Dayton prediction, preview
Saint Louis’ ascendance, while unexpected, shouldn’t come as a major surprise. Head coach Josh Schertz has a solid track record of success, going back to his time at Indiana State. At this point, he deserves mention among the most innovative offensive minds in college basketball. The Billikens are putting up 90.1 points per game, fifth-most among all Division I schools. What’s so impressive is the depth on this squad. Seven different players are averaging at least 9.6 points per game.
If anyone is the number one option on this team, it’s Robbie Avila. Casual fans might remember the junior on Schertz’ Indiana State crew two years ago. Now, the center leads Saint Louis in scoring (12.7 PPG) and assists (4.2 AST). He’s accompanied by a dangerous, experienced backcourt. Upperclassmen Trey Green and Dion Brown have combined for 22.6 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. This offense is knocking down 40.8% of its three-point attempts, second-best in the nation. Their 71.3 adjusted tempo is the sport’s 13th-quickest pace, per KenPom.
In terms of play style, these conference rivals couldn’t be more different. Dayton prefers to operate at a more deliberate pace, slowing down the opposition instead of outscoring them. The Flyers have posted a 102.5 adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom, 51st in college basketball. The only Atlantic 10 program that has recorded a better mark is Saint Louis (98.3).
The other end of the floor has proven to be more of a challenge. Dayton rosters three talented scorers, led by Javon Bennett (15.9 PPG). Co-stars De’Shayne Montgomery (14.5 PPG) and Amael L’Etang (11.9 PPG, 5.8 REB) are also names to watch. However, this group is quite top-heavy. As a unit, the Flyers rank 199th in college basketball with a 109.2 offensive rating.
One facet of the game that could prove decisive is on the glass. Saint Louis loves crashing the boards, tied for 13th in college basketball with a 55.6% total rebounding rate. In comparison, the Flyers are all the way at 231st (49.1%). Boxing out a deep, tenacious Billikens frontcourt is easier said than done. Other than the seven-foot L’Etang, no other key Dayton rotation members are over 6’6″.
Saint Louis vs. Dayton pick, best bet
When these teams last met on January 30th, the Billikens dominated en route to a 102-71 victory. A trip to Ohio should lead to a much closer affair tonight. Regardless, it’s nearly impossible to trust Dayton heading into this one. Saint Louis’ superior offense and rebounding make it difficult to envision the Flyers keeping pace on Tuesday.
