Despite being 11 games above .500 and the five seed in the East, it’s still a little jarring to see the Raptors as 1.5-point favorites over the defending champion Thunder on Tuesday night in Toronto. However, that line comes with a major asterisk. Oklahoma City has been hit hard by the injury bug, and will once again be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdomen), Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (abdomen).
Can the Raptors take advantage of their wounded foe? Let’s preview this tilt with the help of some of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thunder at Raptors prediction, preview
While the Thunder’s current rotation might not match the team’s 44-14 record, this isn’t a squad that’s simply going to roll over due to injury. In fact, Oklahoma City is directly on the heels of a somewhat shocking victory over the red-hot Cavaliers this past weekend. Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace led the team with 22 points and 20 points, respectively, while Isaiah Hartenstein shot 6-for-6 from the field and finished the contest as a +23 in his 25.7 minutes of action. If there were ever a showcase for the Thunder’s immense depth, it was on Sunday.
That said, Oklahoma City could be without yet another key piece this evening in Toronto. Chet Holmgren is listed as questionable due to back spasms, and there’s a decent chance the former second-overall pick sits this tilt out, especially with the Thunder set to complete a back-to-back set in Detroit tomorrow night. If that ends up being the case, it will be just the second time in 2025-26 that Oklahoma City will be playing a game without all three of its All-Stars. The only other occasion? The infamous February 4 matchup with the Spurs on ESPN, where the Thunder sat 10 players — and are now under investigation from the league. Oklahoma City lost that contest 116-106. Needless to say, it’s quite the adjustment to take the floor with SGA, Williams and Holmgren in street clothes.
Conversely, the Raptors will be getting a major rotation piece back in the mix on Tuesday, as Scottie Barnes will re-join the team after missing Sunday’s win over the Bucks due to personal reasons. The All-Star is in the midst of the best season of his career, as Barnes is averaging 19.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game with a 50.1% field goal rate. The former Rookie of the Year also leads the Eastern Conference in stocks (steals + blocks) and is the only player in the entire NBA with at least 70 steals and 70 blocks to his name. Barnes’ offensive profile still might leave you wanting a little more, but rest assured, he’s one of the premier defensive players in the league.
Toronto also comes into this matchup having won nine of its last 13 contests, a span of time where the squad ranks ninth in the NBA in net rating (+5.2) — ironically, just one spot below the Thunder (+5.5). One of these nine victories came in Oklahoma City, when the Raptors took down the Thunder 103-101 on January 25. Both Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren were available that evening, with Barnes blocking the latter’s game-tying shot attempt in the final minute of the fourth quarter. I’m not sure if even the most die-hard Toronto fan would have expected the Raptors to have a legitimate opportunity to sweep the reigning NBA champs in the regular season, yet here we are.
Thunder at Raptors pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 216.5 (-115)
It’s difficult to pick a side on the spread with Holmgren’s status unknown, so I’ll attack the total instead. These two teams both rank in the top six of the league in defensive rating in the month of February, and neither operates at all that quick a pace. This should be a low-scoring affair, just like we saw in January.
