Tuesday night’s college basketball slate is loaded with high-profile matchups. Tipping off at 7 p.m. ET, the Indiana Hoosiers will host the Northwestern Wildcats in Bloomington.
Indiana enters as a 9.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 145.5 points.
Indiana vs. Northwestern prediction, preview
Indiana is 17-10 this season and has gone 8-8 in Big Ten play. The program is coming off back-to-back losses in tough matchups against Illinois and Purdue. They have gone 13-14 against the spread, falling under the game total in 14 of 27 games.
Darian DeVries’ squad is producing 79.7 points per game, which ranks 76th in the country. Indiana also sits 37th in offensive rating, 52nd in field-goal percentage, and 136th in three-point percentage. On the other end, Indiana ranks 108th in opponent scoring, 56th in defensive rating, 60th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 55th in opponent perimeter efficiency.
Lamar Wilkerson leads the team with 21.1 points per game, shooting 38.1% from beyond the arc. Tucker DeVries has been playing at a high level, especially of late, averaging 13.7 points and 5.2 rebounds a night. Tayton Conerway contributes 10.2 points. Reed Bailey, Nick Dorn, Sam Alexis, and Conor Enright also play key roles in the rotation.
Northwestern holds an 11-16 record and has gone just 3-13 in conference play. They recently beat Maryland to snap a five-game slide. The Wildcats have gone 10-15-2 against the spread and have cleared the over in 14 of 27 games.
Chris Collins’ squad is scoring 74.1 points per game, which ranks 195th among D1 teams. Northwestern also sits 70th in offensive rating, 132nd in field-goal percentage, and 275th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Wildcats rank 134th in opponent scoring, 89th in defensive rating, 111th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 99th in opponent three-point percentage.
Nick Martinelli leads the Big Ten with 22.3 points per game, along with 6.2 rebounds, while shooting a scorching 43.5% from downtown. Arrinten Page and Jayden Reid also average in double figures, with Reid leading the Wildcats with 4.9 assists. Tre Singleton, Angelo Ciaravino, Tyler Kopp, and Jake West also play key roles in the rotation.
Indiana vs. Northwestern pick, best bet
Indiana is looking to pick itself up off the mat after consecutive frustrating losses, losing to both Illinois and Purdue by 20+ points. Fortunately, Tuesday’s contest presents a chance to bounce back against a far less formidable Northwestern team. The program has dropped 11 of its last 14 games and has failed to cover the spread in nine matchups during that stretch.
Expect Indiana, which defends the three well, to completely shut down the perimeter against the Wildcats, who rank just 275th in three-point percentage. On the other end, the Hoosiers should space the floor and attack from deep, just as they’ve done all season.
Trading two points for three is a losing recipe, and Northwestern’s lack of shot creators presents a massive hurdle. While Nick Martinelli is an excellent shot creator, he may not have enough help to keep up with the Hoosiers. Northwestern is just 2-8 in games where Martinelli scores less than 21 points, and could be in trouble with Indiana likely focused on containing the Big Ten’s top scorer.
Indiana’s outlook has soured a bit in recent contests, but the program has strung together far more convincing performances this season compared to Northwestern. Expect the Hoosiers to capitalize on the favorable matchup, and for the talent gap to exceed what the 8.5-point spread indicates.
Count on Indiana to take full control of this matchup and cruise to a victory beyond the 8.5-point spread.
