With just four games remaining in the college basketball regular season, every contender is starting to look ahead to the NCAA Tournament, and for teams on the bubble, every game will be paramount from here on out.
The North Carolina State Wolfpack (19-8, 10-4 ACC) should make the tournament regardless, but they’d surely prefer to be a top-eight seed than have to face a more difficult opponent. A win in their 7 p.m. ET road clash against No. 11 Virginia (24-3, 12-2) would go a long way towards securing better positioning, while a Cavaliers win would solidify their position among the overall top 16.
Virginia is a 5.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 150.5. Below, I’ll break down this critical mid-coastal matchup and offer a prediction.
NC State vs. Virginia (7:00 p.m. ET)
NC State had gotten hot, winning six games in a row — including one over a top-25 team in Clemson — but has since cooled down, getting blown out by No. 24 Louisville and losing narrowly to Miami. But the Wolfpack bounced back with a comfortable win over North Carolina in their most recent game, their second ranked win of the season. They rank 25th by KenPom’s standards because they’ve been solid on both sides of the ball, had a fairly difficult out-of-conference schedule, and have gotten pretty unlucky.
NC State is the sort of upperclassman-led team that could easily make a deep tournament run despite its lack of blue-chip talent. Each of its top three scorers — Darrion Williams, Quadir Copeland, and Ven-Allen Lubin — are seniors. The Wolfpack also have lots of shooting: Williams, Copeland, and Paul McNeil Jr. are all shooting at least 40% from beyond the arc. Their offense is extremely egalitarian, as Williams, Copeland, Lubin, and McNeil are all averaging between 13.4 and 14.2 points per game, though Copeland has the biggest responsibility as a playmaker and defender.
All of them will need to be on fire if NC State wants to upset the Cavaliers. Virginia has lost just once in regulation since November 23, as one of its losses in the last three months was a triple-overtime thriller against Virginia Tech. But the Cavaliers are living on the edge, with three of its last four games decided by one or two possessions, and at a certain point, they’re bound to lose a close game. KenPom suggests that they’ve gotten pretty lucky, and while they have a slightly better defense than the Wolfpack, their offense has slightly lagged behind.
While Virginia, like NC State, technically has four players averaging at least 10 points per game, Sam Lewis and Chance Mallory barely get over that threshold, leaving Thijs De Ridder (15.9 PPG) as the unequivocal leading man. The Belgian freshman has mostly succeeded in his role, shooting a solid 51.8% from the field, but he’s not surrounded by as much shooting as the Wolfpack trio, as only Jacari White has hit more than 40% of his threes. Unlike NC State, the Cavaliers don’t have a primary distributor, as both Mallory and Dallin Hall average more than three assists per game.
Ultimately, this game will come down to Virginia’s rebounding against the Wolfpack’s shooting, which could give the Cavaliers the advantage in the end, given that they rank 20th in three-point percentage defense. But shooting isn’t just about three-pointers, and NC State also has plenty of counters within the arc as well. The Wolfpack also haven’t been entirely awful on the boards, which could allow them to somewhat contain Virginia, and in a close game, their superior free-throw shooting will matter. I’ll take NC State to cover the spread.
