The college basketball regular season is nearing its conclusion over the coming weeks, making way for conference tournaments before the Big Dance begins in March. The Michigan Wolverines are the No. 3 team in the nation, dipping slightly from No. 1 after a crushing loss to Duke this weekend. Still, Dusty May’s team is absolutely dominant and now faces a Midwest rival as the Minnesota Golden Gophers arrive in Ann Arbor for this matchup.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Minnesota vs. Michigan on Tuesday, February 24.
Minnesota vs. Michigan prediction, preview
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Over the closing weeks of the regular season, Minnesota will simply be looking to get out in front of the .500 mark. At 13-14 overall and 6-10 in the Big Ten, the season was all but lost long ago. This program is just 2-8 against Quad 1 sides, 3-4 against Quad 2s, and 1-2 vs. Quad 3s. In short, the Golden Gophers likely won’t be competing tonight.
Minnesota does sit 72nd in the KenPom rankings with a +11.60 NetRtg. The defense is the lone bright spot for this roster, holding opponents to 67.7 PPG (29th in the nation) with the 52nd DRtg among all D1 teams. Granted, those results probably come as a result of a dragging pace rather than genuine defensive prowess, especially with the team ranked 350th in adjusted tempo. The Golden Gophers struggle on the glass with just 32.6 rebounds per game, and the offense isn’t much to write home about either. They post 70.9 PPG and fall 100th in ORtg. The ball movement is admittedly impressive with 17.5 assists, a 1.616 AST/TO ratio and the nation’s leading assist/FGM mark. The shooting percentages of 45.7% overall and 34.2% from three don’t particularly stand out, though.
Michigan Wolverines
On the opposite bench, Michigan has outright demolished most teams throughout the campaign. The Wolverines had lost only one game prior to this weekend, dropping a matchup against new No. 1 Duke 68-63 on the road. Still they’re 25-2 now and remain a true contender for a championship, going 10-1 against Quad 1 teams and 9-1 against Quad 2 sides as well.
Michigan is one of the best teams in basketball at both ends of the floor, ranking first per KenPom with a +38.85 NetRtg. The Wolverines have a top-five offense with 89.6 PPG and the fifth-best ORtg, succeeding in just about every aspect of play. They move the ball nicely with 19.4 assists and a 1.609 AST/TO ratio, also shooting 51.0% overall and 35.7% from three-point range. Beyond those numbers, they’re also 21st in OREB% as well. On the other side of things, Michigan allows 68.7 PPG to opponents with the nation’s best DRTG. The program pulls down 41.0 rebounds, 11th-most in the country as well. The interesting part is that the Wolverines push the pace, sitting 14th in adjusted tempo and dominating despite playing the fifth-hardest schedule in terms of opponent NetRtg.
Minnesota vs. Michigan pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Michigan as a staggering 22.5-point favorite at home with the game total set at 145.5 combined points.
The Golden Gophers are led by a standout guard in Cade Tyson, who produces 19.5 points and 5.7 rebounds while shooting 48.9% from the field and 40.9% from deep. He’s an excellent player, but Minnesota doesn’t have the surrounding talent to hang around in this contest. Michigan doesn’t have anyone scoring more than 14.6 PPG with all of Yaxel Lendebirg, Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara and Elliot Cadeau all in double figures, but the team gets out in transition and has a litany of options who can beat opponents. Leave one open and they’ll simply find someone else for the open basket.
In an outstanding clash of styles and pace, the reality is that the tempo will probably fall somewhere in the middle. While Michigan has a far better team and will certainly win, the group may get slowed down some in this one. Likewise, Minnesota may get sped up to an extent compared to usual matchups, and while the Wolverines’ defense is fantastic, this is just a very wide gap in terms of spread. A 22.5-point difference is a chasm, but one that the Golden Gophers may be able to cover even against a far superior opponent.
