On January 31, 2025, New Orleans Pelicans guard Dejounte Murray — just 31 games into his tenure with the team — went down with a torn Achilles tendon. Just under 13 months later, he’s finally ready to make his return to action, further complicating the picture for a Pelicans team that is stuck in purgatory.
The one-time All-Star will make his season debut tonight at 8:10 p.m. ET when New Orleans hosts the Golden State Warriors. The Pelicans won’t have a completely clean injury report regardless, as Trey Murphy III (shoulder) and Yves Missi (calf) remain out. Golden State, similarly, will be without a bevy of players, including Stephen Curry (knee), Kristaps Porziņġis (illness), and Al Horford (toe).
Even with their injuries and Murray’s return, the Warriors are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-125 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 228.5. New Orleans, meanwhile, is +105 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this matchup and offer a prediction.
Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans preview, prediction
Since Jimmy Butler III tore his ACL, Golden State dropped from playoff contention to Play-In fodder, and it has gone just 5-8 across that span. This month, since Curry went out with his knee pain, the Warriors have gone 3-4. Butler’s injury required more of Brandin Podziemski, and he hasn’t exactly delivered, averaging just 11.5 points per game on 39-29-80 shooting splits across the last 13 games. Moses Moody and Gui Santos — each of whom has shot at least 42% from beyond the arc over the last 13 games — have helped pick up the slack, but Golden State still stands no chance of winning a playoff series without a fully healthy Curry.
The bright side for the Pelicans is that Zion Williamson has appeared in each of the last 32 games, the longest such stretch of his career, and he hasn’t been bad, averaging 21.8 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. But even a healthy Williamson hasn’t led to wins, as New Orleans has posted just a 12-20 record over that span. It has started to win more as of late, going 6-6 in its last 12 games, which might allow it to rise up the standings because it has no reason to tank. The Pelicans continue to be directionless, but at least young center Derik Queen has continued to show flashes.
Warriors at Pelicans pick, best bet
To be fair, the Warriors have only been 0.4 points per 100 possessions without Curry this season, the second-most meager on-off margin of his career. Still, his absence has definitely been felt, especially on offense, where Golden State has been 8.0 points per 100 possessions less efficient without its hub. The Warriors haven’t been great on either side of the ball this month, ranking ninth-to-last in offensive rating and 13th-to-last in defensive rating. In fact, Golden State’s negative-5.5 net rating this month is basically as bad as New Orleans’ without Murphy — an efficient 22-PPG scorer — on the court.
Finishing will be a major key for the Warriors, as the Pelicans have allowed the second-most shots per game inside the restricted area this season, though only the eighth-most since the start of February. There are some pluses and minuses to that: while Golden State has still finished at an elite rate even without Curry, shooting the league’s fourth-best percentage inside the restricted area since the start of the month, it has attempted the second-fewest layups per game. Meanwhile, the Warriors have had poor rim protection all season, and the Pelicans attempt 4.2 more restricted-area shots per game than any other team.
Neither of these teams is good on the glass. Since Curry’s injury, Golden State has ranked 25th in rebounding percentage and New Orleans 29th, and the Pelicans could be even worse with Missi, their best individual rebounder, out. New Orleans should be able to make up for some of that edge in transition — this month, it leads the league in fast-break points and ranks third in opponent fast-break points — and it has also been far better at drawing fouls than the Warriors, who rank dead last in free throws per game since Curry’s injury.
Even without the greatest shooter in league history, Golden State should still have a sizable edge in the shooting department. Losing Curry’s gravity and deadeye shooting hasn’t seemed to impact the Warriors this month, as they’ve still generated the most wide-open threes per game and connected at the league’s sixth-highest rate. While the Pelicans have also done a good job generating easy looks and have knocked them down at a high rate, Golden State has also done a much better job closing out on opposing shooters, and New Orleans has gotten extremely fortunate that opponents have made their wide-open threes at just a 32.1% clip.
Ultimately, the Pelicans’ far superior interior play and transition play should be just enough to make up for their shooting disadvantage. Home-court advantage is also a major factor: 10.3 points per 100 possessions. I’ll take New Orleans to pull off the slight upset.
