On a jam-packed Tuesday slate, not every matchup is going to be high-stakes. That’s the case tonight in Brooklyn, when the Mavericks (20-36, 12th in West) visit the Nets (15-41, 14th in East). In this battle between rebuilding clubs, which side has the edge?
The Mavs are 2.5-point favorites (-102) over the Nets on DraftKings Sportsbook. Dallas is favored at -130 on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at 226.5 points. Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Tuesday’s Dallas Mavericks vs. Brooklyn Nets matchup.
Mavericks vs. Nets prediction, preview
What even are the Mavericks at this point? Dallas has already undergone major roster changes, including February’s blockbuster Anthony Davis trade with Washington. The fanbase has had some reason for optimism due to the standout play of Cooper Flagg. However, the rookie has already been ruled out tonight due to a foot injury. It’s his third straight absence; during that time, the team has gone 1-2. When the Mavs last took the floor, they eked out a 134-130 win over the Pacers.
Due to the barren nature of its current roster, Dallas has had some unexpected contributors step up lately. That includes Khris Middleton, a throw-in during the Davis trade. Over four games with his new club, the former All-Star has notched 22.6 points per game on 49% shooting. Fellow midseason pickup Marvin Bagley III has also impressed (11.8 PPG, 9.6 REB). Still, scoring has proven to be quite the struggle for this group, even with Flagg healthy. The Mavericks have posted a 111.1 offensive rating this season, fifth-worst in the NBA. On the other end of the floor, they’ve posted a 119.9 defensive rating over their last eight games. That’s the fourth-worst mark in all of basketball during that time.
With all that being said, the Mavericks still enter this contest as favorites. That’s due primarily to their lackluster opponents. Despite brief moments of competitiveness, Brooklyn has been destined for a lottery pick all season. Over the past month, this group has won three of its last 15 games. During that stretch, the Nets have delivered an NBA-worst -15.1 net rating.
One positive sign for Brooklyn tonight is that this game takes place at home. Following a three-game road trip, the friendly confines of the Barclays Center are more than welcome. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Nets have a clean bill of health as well. That means leading scorer Michael Porter Jr. is expected to take the court. It’s been a phenomenal year for the wing, playing in his first season outside of Denver. Over 44 outings, MPJ is averaging 24.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists to go with 47/37/85 shooting splits.
Mavericks vs. Nets pick, best bet
The Mavericks have been abysmal on the road this season (6-19). On the flip side, Brooklyn has been the NBA’s worst team at home (8-19). In short, something has to give on Tuesday. Dallas has gone 3-4 this season when playing without Flagg. However, those wins came against injury-depleted Pacers and Jazz squads. The Nets, if nothing else, are at their healthiest heading into this one. In a battle between two bad, evenly-matched clubs, I’d rather back the home underdogs.
