The college basketball regular season is nearing its conclusion over the coming weeks, making way for conference tournaments before the Big Dance begins in March. In the Big 12, a contender now marred by major injury looks to keep its hopes of a high seed alive while simultaneously adjusting to life without its superstar. The Texas Tech Red Raiders battle the Cincinnati Bearcats on Tuesday evening, but this may be a closer affair in Lubbock than one may think.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech on Tuesday, February 24.
Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech prediction, preview
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2018-19 and are yet to have a true standout season since migrating to the Big 12 ahead of the 2023-24 campaign. This year hasn’t been much different, sitting 15-12 but just 7-7 in conference play so far. They’ve been smacked by Quad 1 teams with a 2-9 record in the split, though a 4-2 mark against Quad 2s is more encouraging in terms of competing against quality sides.
Cincinnati falls 46th in the KenPom rankings with a +16.40 NetRtg. This team doesn’t have much in terms of offensive firepower, averaging only 72.7 PPG while shooting 43.0% overall and 32.5% from three. The Bearcats do dish 16.5 assists per game, but a 1.361 TO/AST ratio remains 91st in the country and they cough the ball up 12.1 times on average. However, what they lack in scoring is made up for on the other end of the floor. Cincy pulls down 37.3 rebounds per game and allows just 67.0 PPG to opponents, the latter stat of which ranks 21st in the nation. Beyond that, the Bearcats are 10th in DRtg as well, leaning on tenacity and grit to keep games close.
Baba Milller leads the team with 13.9 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, while four other scorers average double-digit points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
For Texas Tech, this season began with very high hopes of making another deep NCAA Tournament run. At 20-7 overall and 10-4 in Big 12 play, the program seemed on its way to such a feat with signature wins over Houston and Arizona over the last few weeks. In Quad 1 play, the Red Raiders are 7-7 overall and are unbeaten against Quads 2-4. However, disaster struck when leading scorer and rebounder JT Toppin suffered a season-ending ACL tear in their last game, gutting a roster with title aspirations.
TTU sits 16th in the KenPom rankings with a +26.48 NetRtg. The team’s play has been strong on both ends with top-30 marks in ORtg and DRtg, but how these numbers change without Toppin remains uncertain. The Red Raiders average 82.1 PPG, shooting 46.7% from the field and 39.2% from deep, the latter of which is the nation’s ninth-best mark. Texas Tech also posts 15.9 assists with a 1.509 AST/TO ratio that’s good for 41st. While posting 37.7 rebounds per game, the Red Raiders allow 72.3 PPG to opponents and are largely quite solid on that end, though there’s no doubt they’re no stranger to shootout-type game scripts.
Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as a 5.5-point favorite at home with the game total set at 141.5 combined points.
This may be a bit of a weird one as the Red Raiders adjust to life without Toppin in their first appearance without him. With averages of 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds, his absence will absolutely be felt on the floor tonight. His ability as a slasher is part of what makes this whole squad work — thanks to his rim pressure, surrounding shooters often see coverage sag, which is why Tech hits the fourth-most threes per game at 11.4.
That’s not to say that the Red Raiders will lose this one outright, though. Those shooters are clearly capable and guard Christian Anderson is still outproducing any weapon on Cincinnati’s roster with 19.1 points and 7.7 assists per outing. Forward LeJuan Watts now sees an opportunity to step up as a scorer after posting 12.2 PPG on the campaign, and there’s still another double-digit guard in Donovan Atwell (13.0 PPPG). TTU should still hang around in this game, if not have the advantage.
The concerns are now adjusting to a new pecking order in the offense and seeking dominance on the glass from other sources. Given that it’s the first game without Toppin and the Red Raiders may play around with the rotation a bit as they look to settle into the new reality, it actually makes sense that the Cincinnati defense does its job and keeps this contest close. I like the Bearcats at +5.5.
