The second leg of the playoff round between Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund takes place on Wednesday in Italy. Dortmund are taking a 2-0 lead into the second leg after getting the job done in Germany. Can Atalanta make a comeback, or will Dortmund coast into the Round of 16?
Atalanta are +105 favorites on the moneyline, while a draw is available at +280. Fancy a Dortmund upset? They are +230 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Pick
I thought about taking Atalanta to advance at +370, but I will play it safe and take their moneyline. I think the Italian side will win the game, but I don’t think it will be enough to overturn the two goal deficit and advance.
Atalanta have been decent at home throughout the Champions League, and I think that will continue on Wednesday. In the League Phase, they won two of their four home games, drew one and lost one. Their two wins came against Club Brugge and Chelsea, while the loss was against Athletic Club.
Facing a 2-0 deficit going into this one, the onus will be on the Italian side to attack while Dortmund try to defend their lead and hit Atalanta on the counter attack. I think this game script will help Atalanta win the game, because they have no other choice but to go all out. Dortmund will likely still advance, but I fancy the Italian side to win a close one.
In the first leg, the stats tell a different story than the result. Atalanta finished with more possession and more shots on goal. If they can do that in Germany, I’m sure they can do even better given the circumstances of this game and the fact that it’s at home.
Dortmund weren’t exactly prolific on the road in the League Phase, only winning one of their four away games while losing two and drawing one. The sole win came against F.C. Copenhagen, who were eliminated from the competition after finishing 31st in the table.
This game has all the ingredients for an Atalanta win, and even a possibility that they complete the comeback and advance to the next round.
