A crucial clash is set to take place this afternoon in the SEC. #20 Arkansas (19-7, 9-4) has been hot, reeling off six wins over its last eight games. Now, the Razorbacks will attempt to defend home court against Missouri (18-8, 8-5). The Tigers are coming off of an exhilarating 81-80 victory on Wednesday vs. #19 Vanderbilt. Can they make it two in a row this weekend?
Arkansas enters Saturday as 10.5-point favorites (-110) over Missouri. The total is set at 161.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for today’s game between the Tigers and Razorbacks.
Missouri vs. Arkansas prediction, preview
For Missouri, every game matters. Wednesday’s win over Vandy was crucial, but it hasn’t taken this group off of the NCAA Tournament bubble. However, conquering another ranked foe, this time on the road, would make this squad a strong bet for March Madness. Granted, the Tigers do possess several other quality wins. They’ve gone 7-8 this season over Quad 1 and 2 opponents. That includes victories over #12 Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M.
It’s worth mentioning that the advanced metrics aren’t in love with Mizzou. Per KenPom, the Tigers are 52nd in terms of net rating (+14.38), 11th among all SEC programs. To boot, their average margin of victory is just +5.5 points, 74th among all Division I programs. With that being said, this team does a terrific job down low. 6’8″ forward Mark Mitchell is the ringleader, averaging 16.9 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Guard Jayden Stone has carried an otherwise middling back court, as well (15.1 PPG, 5.1 REB). As a unit, Missouri has produced a 53.3% total rebounding percentage, tied for the 35th-best mark in college basketball.
Arkansas plays a much different brand of hoops, opting for a fast-paced, offensively-minded attack. The Razorbacks are averaging 89.8 points per game, ninth-most in the nation. Leading the charge is Darius Acuff, fresh off of a historic 49-point performance on Wednesday vs. Alabama. The freshman has already emerged as one of the sport’s premier scorers. This season, he’s recorded 22.3 points, 3.0 rebounds and an SEC-leading 6.2 assists per game.
It’s not as if Acuff is carrying an otherwise mediocre roster. John Calipari’s crew is overflowing with high-octane scorers. Look no further than Meleek Thomas, who has notched 15.3 points while shooting 40% from three-point range. Inside the paint, Trevon Brazile continues to impress (12.7 PPG, 7.2 REB). Three additional role players have recorded at least 7.0 points per game for the Hogs, as well.
It’s not as if the other side of the ball is bad, either. Arkansas has delivered a 101.3 adjusted defensive efficiency, 41st on KenPom. That’ll do when paired with an elite offensive unit. One area of concern? The Razorbacks have a 69.2% defensive rebounding rate, 285th in all of college basketball. That’s a weakness the Tigers are capable of exploiting.
Missouri vs. Arkansas pick, best bet
In most aspects, the Razorbacks feel like the smart play. Arkansas is 13-1 at home, and should play inspired basketball following a tough loss this week vs. Alabama. However, an inability to successfully box out could come back to haunt the Hogs. Missouri and its tall, physical front court loves to crash the glass. Coming into this one with momentum, the Tigers should manage to keep it within single-digits.
