A pair of Big 12 teams with lots to play for will meet late Saturday night when the No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones travel to Provo to take on the No. 23 BYU Cougars to close out the Saturday slate.
Checking in on the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cyclones are 2.5-point road favorites with -155 odds on the Moneyline. The Cougars are +130 as an underdog on the Moneyline while the total O/U is set at 154.5 points.
Below is my preview, pick and prediction for Saturday’s Iowa State at BYU matchup.
Iowa State at BYU prediction, pick
The Cyclones head back out on the road after a big bounce back week at home that saw them take down both then-No. 9 Kansas and No. 2 Houston. Those two wins came within the span of a week and came after Iowa State dropped its third game of the season, this time on the road to TCU. Despite that, the Cyclones are third in the Big 12 with a 10-3 conference record.
Iowa State continues to rely on its defense to help it win games, just as it did with those pair of top-10 wins this last week. The Cyclones are ranked 10th nationally, giving up 64.6 points a game while allowing teams to shoot 41.6% from the field. One of the Cyclones’ greatest defensive strengths, however, is their ability to turn teams over, ranking 15th in the country by generating 15.1 turnovers a game. In Iowa State’s last two games alone, it allowed 61.5 points a game while turning over Kansas and Houston a combined 20 times.
Senior guard Tamin Lipsey is leading that charge, averaging a team-high 2.2 steals a game while also leading the team with 5.3 assists and adding 13 points a game as well. Forward Joshua Jefferson is Iowa State’s leading rebounder with 7.5 a game, though he does it all for the ‘Clones, adding 16.5 points, 5.2 assists and 1.4 steals a game as well. Milan Momcilovic, meanwhile, garners all the attention behind the arc, as he scores 18 a game, and mostly from the beyond the arc, where he shoots it at a 51.3% clip. Killyan Toure, Nate Heise and Blake Buchanan also continue to play key minutes for the Cyclones.
The Cougars will be playing a bit desperate as they return home from a road loss to No. 4 Arizona earlier this week. BYU’s season looked promising to start Big 12 conference play, as it won five of its first six games. However, after dropping five of their last seven games and losing one of their top scorers in Richie Saunders, the Cougs are tied for sixth in the Big 12 and looking to get back on track.
Unlike the Cyclones, however, the Cougars rely on their offense to stack wins. Though BYU is ninth in the Big 12 allowing 74.5 points a game, it is second in the conference putting up 85.8 points a game on 48.3% shooting, the latter of which is third in the Big 12. The Cougars have won two of their last three after scoring 90 or more points in both wins, shooting 51.5% from the field across both games as well.
That strong offense has been led all season by top freshman AJ Dybantsa, who averages 24.8 points a game and has scored 35 or more in three of his last five. Dybantsa also adds 6.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists a game, while forward Keba Keita leads the team with 7.2 boards and 1.9 blocks a game. Transfer guard Robert Wright III is one of BYU’s top shooters, averaging 18.5 points a game on a 45.8% mark from beyond the arc. The Cougars will miss senior Richie Saunders’ hot shooting and 18 points a game, as he will be sidelined the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.
Iowa State at BYU Best Bet
The Cougars are returning back to home base, where they are 12-2 this season, desperate to get back on track. However, they run into a hot Iowa State team that just took down a pair of top-10 teams at home and will be looking to continue that run by adding a top-25 road win to its resume and pull closer to the Big 12 regular-season title.
Although BYU found some offensive firepower against Colorado and Baylor after the injury to Saunders, those defenses are nothing compared to that of Iowa State’s, which has more in common with the Arizona team that just defeated the Cougars. Even with Dybantsa’s 35-point outburst, BYU was unable to overcome a strong Arizona defense, and it should have the same issues with Iowa State.
The Cyclones’ offense should also be able to run up the score a bit on the Cougars, who are allowing teams to shoot the ball at a 37.4% mark from three in their past five games. Momcilovic should be able to heat up from three and help get Iowa State’s offense rolling, which should be too much for BYU to catch up to.
