A quarter-century has all led up to this: Survivor’s 50th season. Since its debut in 2000, the reality TV staple has evolved from social experiment to cutthroat strategic battle. Along the way, countless legends have become ingrained into the show’s history. Now, 24 of those names, spanning three decades, are set to play one more time on the beaches of Fiji.
We’ll separate all Survivor 50 cast members into tiers, ranked from least to most likely winners. To help with these picks, I’ve consulted Mike Bloom’s preseason interviews for Parade.com.
Who has what it takes for a deep run? Are any fan favorites at risk of going home early? Before the start of next week’s premiere episode, let’s break down which players are best positioned to earn the title of Sole Survivor.
*Spoilers for Seasons 1 through 49 of Survivor.*
Tier 1: Early Boot Candidates
- 24: Quintavius “Q” Burdette (Season 46)
Cancel Christmas – if anyone is targeted for a quick exit, it’s Q. The highlight of Season 46, Burdette is the definition of chaotic. Between flipping on allies and constant scrambling for immunity idols, this isn’t someone other players want to work with. I’m hoping for a deep run, but it’s not looking good for this larger-than-life personality.
- 23: Savannah Louie (Season 49)
Savannah is the show’s most recent winner, which makes her the ultimate wildcard. When these cast members left for Fiji, Season 49 hadn’t aired yet. That means nobody outside of Savannah and her close ally, Rizo, know what actually happened. In almost all the preseason interviews, she’s been someone other players are wary of. An early target this large is difficult to overcome.
- 22: Emily Flippen (Season 45)
Emily’s growth from cold and calculating to emotional player was a highlight of Season 45. However, she appears set on reverting back to the former this time around. Her interview answers on fellow tribe mates are snarky, to say the least. Entertainment-wise, I’m all for it. Winning-wise? I’m not so sure. It’s easy to forget now, but Flippen spent the first few days of 45 as a social pariah. If something similar occurs this time around, she may not be so lucky.
- 21: Mike White (Season 37)
One of the more shocking names on this cast, Mike White doesn’t have strong incentive to even be here. The creator of HBO’s White Lotus has found ample real-world success since his first appearance in Season 37, David vs. Goliath. A fun guy to be around, I’m sure Mike will deliver some terrific confessionals early on. However, will Kalo tribe mates such as Coach and Jonathan be receptive to his laid-back gameplay? I’m not so sure.
Tier 2: Merge Hopefuls
- 20: Kyle Fraser (Season 48)
Savannah is the most recent winner, but Kyle is the most recent winner that this cast has seen. That’s a precarious spot to be in. Psychologically, those who came up short will want to take down Survivor’s newest golden boy. Granted, Kyle is a smart player that found a way to get along with just about everyone. He also has a potential ally down the road in Season 48’s Kamilla. Regardless, a lot would need to go right in order to reach the merge.
- 19: Dee Valladares (Season 45)
We’ll finish off the champions with Dee, arguably the most dominant winner of the New Era (S40-present). She utilized social skills, challenge wins and a strong strategic hold on the game during her first time around. In other words, this is a true triple-threat. If other players are smart, she’ll be among the first members of the Kalo tribe going home. Still, Dee is simply too good of a player to count out at this point.
- 18: Angelina Keeley (Season 37)
Another David vs Goliath veteran, Angelina was the ultimate messy player. That led to some amazing moments, but it all but ruined her win equity. Based off of what she told Mike Bloom, it seems like this fan favorite enters 50 with a more open outlook on who to work with. Just about everyone on the beach is listed as a potential friend. With that being said, such an approach can backfire. A scenario where Angelina is forced to pick between allies could mark the beginning of her end.
- 17: Stephanie LaGrossa Kendrick (Seasons 10, 11 & 20)
A true OG, Stephanie was a massive fan favorite during her Season 10 debut in Palau. Follow-up appearances have been a mixed bag. S11’s Guatemala saw LaGrossa Kendrick go with more of a ‘Godfather’ approach. The end result was a one-vote second-place finish. S20’s Heroes vs. Villains saw her get picked off as part of a minority alliance on the Heroes tribe. At this point, I’m not sure what to expect. Steph’s threat level is lower than ever, but it’s hard to believe she’ll flip a switch and turn into a strategic mastermind.
Tier 3: High Floor, Low Ceiling
- 16: Joe Hunter (Season 48)
The ‘loyalty’ approach is one that elicits groans from most Survivor fans. Opting for what’s morally right over what makes game sense is a good way to lose a million dollars. In short, that’s what happened to Joe on Season 48. A refusal to make difficult decisions ended up costing him, all while losing the jury’s respect. I think Joe’s straight-shooter attitude will earn him some kudos from several old school players. To boot, he’s a challenge beast that has a good chance at reaching the merge. After that, he’s too big of an immunity threat to hide and probably won’t make enough bold moves.
- 15: Jonathan Young (Season 42)
Speaking of challenge beasts, Jonathan was an absolute monster during his Season 42 appearance. A former swimmer for the University of Alabama, Young single-handedly carried his old tribe to the merge. Now a member of Kalo, an alliance with Coach feels almost inevitable. Despite some preseason tutelage from Boston Rob, I’m still not buying Jonathan 2.0. An improved social game and another deep run wouldn’t be shocking, but like Joe he’s too big to hide. In the era of strategy and deception, a challenge-oriented resume won’t win many votes.
- 14: Colby Donaldson (Seasons 2, 8 & 20)
Another challenge beast, albeit a legendary one. Since finishing as a runner up on Survivor: Australia, Colby has had a mediocre pair of appearances. An early boot on All-Stars, followed by a lazy, frustrating game in HvV had many questioning his spot on 50’s cast. Nonsense; Colby is one of the show’s first true superstars and deserves to be here. He enters this season with easily his lowest threat level. Intriguing interview revelations, such as expressing a desire to work with strategists such as Cirie, have me cautiously optimistic. Still, the most likely scenario here is an early merge boot for a true veteran.
- 13: Jenna Lewis-Dougherty (Seasons 1 & 8)
There’s old school Survivor, and then there’s Jenna. She’s only member of this cast to appear on the very first season in Borneo. While the game has changed drastically since then, Jenna appears to keep up. She’s an avid fan, and doesn’t seem intimidated by the fast-paced New Era. Granted, that all sounds nice during the preseason. We’ll see how Lewis-Dougherty actually does once she’s on the beach. This placement is a bit of a hedge; I’m expecting her to do much better or much worse than 13th this season.
Tier 4: Darkhorses
- 12: Rizo Velovic (Season 49)
If Savannah is an early boot candidate, why so high for Rizo, her partner in crime? Remember when I said the cast hadn’t seen any part of the most recent season? That was only partially true. Most of them likely witnessed the trailer, in which Velovic repeatedly referred to himself as ‘RizGod’. Based off of that alone, you’d never assume he was one of the dominant strategic players of 49. In addition, Rizo’s goofy, friendly side should win over his Vatu tribe mates. There’s sneaky winner potential here, if almost everything goes right.
- 11: Genevieve Mushaluk (Season 47)
A standout strategist, opinions vary on Genevieve’s chances this season. On one hand, other players are wary of the Canadian, viewing her as a massive obstacle down the road. However, she’s shown an ability to maneuver out of tough situations before. Back in Season 47, Mushaluk often operated from the bottom, bringing in unlikely allies to make big moves. She’ll need to pull off something similar this time around, especially at the start of the game.
- 10: Rick Devens (Season 38)
How good is Rick? It’s a question worth asking. Survivor fans have only seen him play once, during Edge of Extinction. On an otherwise mediocre season, seeing Devens run around and grab idols made for decent television, if nothing else. Still, that’s not a game plan anyone can realistically replicate. With that being said, Rick is charismatic and someone that seems like they’d be a loyal ally. On a Cila tribe with bigger threats, he has a decent chance at blending in.
- 9: Charlie Davis (Season 46)
Few players were more difficult to rank than Charlie. Many are expecting an early exit, especially due to his name being brought up often this preseason. However, what makes Charlie such a big target is also what boosts his chances at winning. The guy is a really good Survivor player, and many (including yours truly) thought he could have won Season 46. It also helps that he starts the game on Kalo, which feels like hitting the jackpot. There’s a potential preexisting relationship with Coach, and Jonathan is capable of carrying this entire tribe in challenges. If (big if) Charlie reaches the merge, he’s a massive threat.
Tier 5: Contenders
- 8: Christian Hubicki (Season 37)
Christian was in many ways the star of Season 37. The ultimate David, he was a stellar strategic mind, puzzle whiz, and incredibly personable. If not for frenemy Mike White, he may have lasted even longer during DvG’s merge. This cast probably hasn’t forgotten what a terrific player Christian was his first time out. However, he comes into 50 sharing a tribe with threats like Savannah and Cirie. Plus, he already has a friendship with Emily. If Christian can latch onto a majority alliance early, charisma and a few big moves should keep him around a while.
- 7: Kamilla Karthigesu (Season 48)
We already mentioned Kyle, who has an uphill climb. The same probably can’t be said for Kamilla, his partner in crime. Granted, an early ouster for Kyle is probably needed if she’s going to go far. Allies will have a tough time building trust otherwise. Assuming that does occur, Kamilla probably won’t warrant much attention compared to some bigger names. Coach, Dee and Tiffany have already expressed interest in playing with her. In addition, she benefits from the Kalo pre-merge bump playing alongside Jonathan. Add it all up, and you’re looking at an under the radar winner pick.
- 6: Ozzy Lusth (Seasons 13, 16, 23 & 34)
It’s a fifth Survivor appearance for Ozzy, and his first in nearly a decade. At this point, the formula is known for this historic challenge beast. However, at 44 years old, a switch-up in strategy is needed. That’s not to say Ozzy can’t win a challenge or two, but immunities are a young man’s game. Fortunately, the veteran is paired up with an old friend. While Cirie was responsible for Ozzy’s shocking exit in Season 16, the two have shown preseason interest in working together this time. That would make for a dangerous pair, blending strategic and physical prowess. It’s not just Cirie; Jenna, Christian, Joe and Rick are all intrigued by a potential alliance.
- 5: Chrissy Hofbeck (Season 35)
You’re forgiven if the memory of Chrissy has faded since Season 35. It’s been nearly a decade since Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (that’s a mouthful) first aired. However, Chrissy was easily the most impressive strategist in that cast, and stood a good chance at winning the whole thing. If not for a downright cruel Final Four fire-making twist, we’re probably talking about her as a winner. Cunning, surprisingly athletic, and perhaps more personable this time around, Chrissy has a lot going for her. I doubt she’s on anyone’s radar early, and her age lines up well with several other players. Don’t sleep on this lesser-known gamer.
- 4: Tiffany Ervin (Season 46)
It’s Survivor tradition at this point. In a repeat season, the most puzzling selections often go the farthest. That is unquestionably Tiffany, last seen as an early merge boot in Season 46. On paper, she hardly merits a spot amongst so many franchise legends. However, there’s definitely some potential here. During her last time out, Tiffany was a victim of the disastrous Yanu tribe. This time around, it’s a complete 180 with Kalo. On paper, it would take some bad luck or sloppy gameplay for her not to reach merge. From there, bigger names will likely go after one another. A Tiff win would shock the fanbase, but we’ve seen stranger things happen on this show.
Tier 6: Favorites
- 3: Cirie Fields (Seasons 12, 16, 20 & 34)
Making her fifth appearance, Cirie is Survivor royalty at this point. Logically, this is someone that should be targeted on day one. However, in a game filled with fellow old schoolers and New Era fans, I don’t think anyone makes a big move against her. Not to mention, the Cila tribe is an ideal starting point. As previously mentioned, a power duo with Ozzy feels inevitable. In addition, older players such as Jenna and Joe could make for natural allies. Will something go wrong at the end for Cirie, as is normally the case? Probably, but what a storyline it would be for this all-time great to finally win it all.
- 2: Benjamin “Coach” Wade (Seasons 18, 20, 23)
Don’t laugh – The Dragon Slayer could dominate Survivor 50. Is this wishful thinking on my part? Maybe, but it’s backed up by logic. Coach is known primarily as the cooky, over-the-top character from Tocantins and Heroes vs. Villains. However, he came oh-so close to winning it all during Season 23, South Pacific. In the process, Coach showed he had some strategic chops behind all the bluster. Entering 50, countless players, especially from the New Era, have expressed admiration for this legend. He should have his pick of who to work with on a potentially dominant tribe. An older, wiser Coach has what it takes to make a serious run.
- 1: Aubry Bracco (Seasons 32, 34 & 38)
What makes an ideal Survivor winner pick on a returnee season? For starters, their threat level needs to be manageable. If everyone is out to get you from the jump, it’s already game over. Second, there needs to be a semblance of strategic prowess. Most juries won’t respect coattail riders or challenge beasts with little depth. Keeping that in mind, Aubry fits the mold of a modern Survivor winner. After finishing as a runner-up in Season 32, she’s had two so-so outings in 34 and 38. Now, she enters 50 as somewhat of an afterthought. That’s to Aubry’s benefit; there are much bigger fish to fry within this cast. With everyone gunning for high-profile names, this is her chance to emerge as an all-time great.
