After over a week off for the All-Star break, the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves return to action on Friday night in the first game of the ESPN doubleheader. Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis, and this Western Conference matchup has some interesting storylines on both sides to consider. Let’s break down the matchup and find some Mavericks vs. Timberwolves player prop bets that make sense to add to your betting card for Friday’s return to action.
In the overall picture, the Timberwolves are heavy 14.5-point home favorites with the point total at 239.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Minnesota has the highest implied team total on the board and is heavily favored since Dallas will be missing some key pieces.
On the injury report, the Mavs listed rookie star Cooper Flagg (foot) as out while Moussa Cisse, Ryan Nembhard and Miles Kelly are each doubtful on G-League contracts. Max Christie (ankle) was downgraded to doubtful just before noon, while Daniel Gafford (ankle) and Caleb Martin (ankle) are each questionable. On the other side, the Timberwolves have no injury issues that impact their rotation.
The Mavs are 19-35 and looking to improve their lottery odds to get more talent to join Flagg, while the Timberwolves are 34-22, currently sitting No. 6 in the Western Conference, with a chance to move up since the Lakers and Nuggets just ahead of them are struggling.
Let’s take a look at some of the top player prop bets from both the remaining Mavericks and the Timberwolves in this Friday night matchup. These picks can be used as standalone plays or combined in a Same Game Parlay (SGP), as indicated at the bottom of the post.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Best Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Naji Marshall O18.5 Points (-120)
Marshall has picked up much of the scoring load for the Mavericks whenever they’re without key offensive options. The 28-year-old is averaging a career-high 15.1 points per game in his 53 games this season. He went over this prop with at least 19 points in each of his last three games before the break and has scored at least this many points in nine of his last 15 games as well.
He has only played one game this season without Christie, Flagg and Anthony Davis (before his trade to Washington), and he had 22 points in that contest. In his four games without Flagg and Davis, he averaged 20.5 points per game.
With more usage and opportunity against the Timberwolves, he should be set up to stuff the statsheet as one of the team’s top options on offense. Even if the game gets lopsided, Marshall’s energy and involvement early should be enough for him to get over this prop line.
thu
Ayo Dosunmu O19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-124)
The Timberwolves added Dosunmu in a trade with the Bulls just before the trade deadline, and the versatile wing has stepped right into a meaningful role off the bench. He played at least 25 minutes in each of his three games with the team and after working with them over the break, his role will likely expand going forward.
He went over this prop line with 21 points, three assists and one rebound against the Hawks before the break and then came up just short with 12 points, one rebound and four assists in 28 minutes against the Trail Blazers.
Since the Wolves may be comfortably ahead, they could use the time to get Dosunmu some extra work in the system, and the 26-year-old should continue to settle in to his new team as the season goes on. Getting this reachable PRA prop line makes him a strong option this Friday, since he should get the playing time regardless of game situation.
Jaden McDaniels O1.5 3PM (+122)
McDaniels has continued to get plenty of playing time even after the team’s deadline moves, and he is a good play to have multiple 3PM (three-pointers made) at plus money.
On the season, McDaniels is averaging 1.5 3PM per game, but he went over this prop line in his last two games before the break and in nine of his last 13. He had two 3PM in his last matchup against Dallas on Jan. 28 as part of that run.
McDaniels can be a streaky scorer, but he is shooting a solid 44.4% from long range at home this season. Since the Mavericks are so short-handed, it’s difficult to be sure exactly how many minutes the starters, so it makes more sense to lean into quick-hitter options like this that don’t take long to accumulate.
Bonus Parlay Pick: Daniel Gafford U8.5 Points (-104)
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) from this Friday night matchup, adding in the under on Gafford’s points as well boosts the odds to a solid +1100 for these four Mavericks-Timberwolves bets.
Gafford is questionable, so if he does play, he could be limited. He will also be in a tough matchup against Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle. Gafford played 28 minutes in his last game against the Lakers and still only managed two points, which was his second straight game under this point total. He isn’t a key part of the offense right now, and even if he plays I think he’ll stay under this point total.
